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Champions League
Champions League | Second Qualifying Round | 1st Leg
Jul 23, 2024 at 4.30pm UK
Stadio di Cornaredo

Panevezys
0 - 4
Jagiellonia


Gussias (39')
FT(HT: 0-3)
Imaz (15', 28', 29'), Normann Hansen (80')
Moutinho (83')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Champions League clash between Panevezys and Jagiellonia Bialystok, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Panevezys

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Last Game: HJK Helsinki 1-1 Panevezys
Tuesday, July 16 at 5pm in Champions League
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Jagiellonia Bialystok

All competitions
Last Game: Jagiellonia 2-0 Puszcza Niepolomice
Friday, July 19 at 5pm in Polish Ekstraklasa

We said: Panevezys 1-2 Jagiellonia Bialystok

 The hosts may have managed a shock victory in the first qualifying round, but they come into this game having returned to defeat last time out, their third successive loss in the league. The visitors, on the other hand, returned to their domestic league with a commanding victory, and we expect them to secure the first-leg lead here. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jagiellonia Bialystok win with a probability of 46.4%. A win for Panevezys had a probability of 28.49% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Jagiellonia Bialystok win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.29%) and 0-2 (7.97%). The likeliest Panevezys win was 1-0 (7.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.91%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Jagiellonia Bialystok would win this match.

Result
PanevezysDrawJagiellonia Bialystok
28.49% (-0.554 -0.55) 25.12% (-0.26 -0.26) 46.4% (0.814 0.81)
Both teams to score 54.34% (0.47600000000001 0.48)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.22% (0.789 0.79)48.78% (-0.788 -0.79)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.12% (0.713 0.71)70.88% (-0.712 -0.71)
Panevezys Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.83% (0.00099999999999056 0)31.17%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.49% (0.0020000000000024 0)67.51%
Jagiellonia Bialystok Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.95% (0.69199999999999 0.69)21.05% (-0.689 -0.69)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.15% (1.065 1.07)53.85% (-1.063 -1.06)
Score Analysis
    Panevezys 28.49%
    Jagiellonia Bialystok 46.39%
    Draw 25.11%
PanevezysDrawJagiellonia Bialystok
1-0 @ 7.65% (-0.25 -0.25)
2-1 @ 6.95% (-0.08 -0.08)
2-0 @ 4.46% (-0.146 -0.15)
3-1 @ 2.7% (-0.031 -0.03)
3-2 @ 2.1% (0.02 0.02)
3-0 @ 1.73% (-0.057 -0.06)
Other @ 2.9%
Total : 28.49%
1-1 @ 11.91% (-0.14 -0.14)
0-0 @ 6.56% (-0.215 -0.22)
2-2 @ 5.41% (0.051 0.05)
3-3 @ 1.09% (0.033 0.03)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 25.11%
0-1 @ 10.22% (-0.12 -0.12)
1-2 @ 9.29% (0.087999999999999 0.09)
0-2 @ 7.97% (0.076 0.08)
1-3 @ 4.82% (0.145 0.15)
0-3 @ 4.14% (0.124 0.12)
2-3 @ 2.81% (0.084 0.08)
1-4 @ 1.88% (0.094 0.09)
0-4 @ 1.61% (0.081 0.08)
2-4 @ 1.1% (0.055 0.05)
Other @ 2.56%
Total : 46.39%

How you voted: Panevezys vs Jagiellonia

Panevezys
18.2%
Draw
20.0%
Jagiellonia Bialystok
61.8%
55
rhs 2.0
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