Champions League

Champions League | Group Stage

Sep 28, 2021 at 8pm UK

San Siro

AC Milan
1 - 2
Atletico

Leao (20')
Kessie (15'), Rebic (29'), Hernandez (69'), Saelemaekers (79')
Kessie (29')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Griezmann (84'), Suarez (90+7' pen.)
Kondogbia (60')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Champions League clash between AC Milan and Atletico Madrid, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 37.31%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 36.51% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.26%) and 2-0 (6.3%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 (9.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood.

Result
AC Milan	Draw	Atletico Madrid
37.31%	26.17%	36.51%

Both teams to score 53.65%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.09%

50.91%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.21%

72.78%

AC Milan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.48%

26.52%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.28%

61.72%

Atletico Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.02%

26.98%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.68%

62.32%

Score Analysis

AC Milan 37.31%

Atletico Madrid 36.51%

Draw 26.17%

AC Milan	Draw	Atletico Madrid
1-0 @ 9.5% 2-1 @ 8.26% 2-0 @ 6.3% 3-1 @ 3.65% 3-0 @ 2.79% 3-2 @ 2.39% 4-1 @ 1.21% 4-0 @ 0.93% Other @ 2.29% Total : 37.31%	1-1 @ 12.44% 0-0 @ 7.15% 2-2 @ 5.41% 3-3 @ 1.05% Other @ 0.12% Total : 26.17%	0-1 @ 9.37% 1-2 @ 8.15% 0-2 @ 6.14% 1-3 @ 3.56% 0-3 @ 2.68% 2-3 @ 2.36% 1-4 @ 1.17% Other @ 3.08% Total : 36.51%