Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 39.73%. A win for Schalke 04 had a probability of 35.35% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.45%) and 0-2 (6.26%). The likeliest Schalke 04 win was 2-1 (8.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-6 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Union Berlin would win this match.