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Bundesliga | Gameweek 11
Oct 22, 2022 at 2.30pm UK
BayArena
Wolfsburg

B. Leverkusen
2 - 2
Wolfsburg

Diaby (17'), Frimpong (76')
Tah (49'), Andrich (80'), Fosu-Mensah (90+1')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Andrich (28' og.), Arnold (54' pen.)
Nmecha (60')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Bayer Leverkusen and Wolfsburg, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bayer Leverkusen

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Frankfurt 5-1 B. Leverkusen
Saturday, October 15 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Wolfsburg

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Braunschweig 1-2 Wolfsburg
Tuesday, October 18 at 7.45pm in DFB-Pokal

We said: Bayer Leverkusen 2-2 Wolfsburg

 Amazingly, the side at home in this fixture have failed to win in the last 12 head-to-head's between the sides, and given Leverkusen's recent form, that looks unlikely to change. Also, eight of Leverkusen's 10 Bundesliga matches this season have seen three goals or more, but many have gone in at the wrong end for Bayer, so if Wolfsburg can capitalise on that, they should leave with something. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 61.91%. A draw had a probability of 20.1% and a win for Wolfsburg had a probability of 17.97%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.28%) and 1-0 (8.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.25%), while for a Wolfsburg win it was 1-2 (4.93%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-2 draw for this match.

Result
Bayer LeverkusenDrawWolfsburg
61.91% (-2.964 -2.96) 20.11% (0.799 0.8) 17.97% (2.165 2.17)
Both teams to score 57.83% (1.944 1.94)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
62.11% (0.29 0.29)37.88% (-0.291 -0.29)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
39.86% (0.309 0.31)60.14% (-0.309 -0.31)
Bayer Leverkusen Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
88.23% (-0.703 -0.7)11.77% (0.701 0.7)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
63.04% (-1.525 -1.53)36.95% (1.525 1.53)
Wolfsburg Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.54% (2.703 2.7)34.45% (-2.704 -2.7)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.83% (2.778 2.78)71.16% (-2.779 -2.78)
Score Analysis
    Bayer Leverkusen 61.91%
    Wolfsburg 17.97%
    Draw 20.11%
Bayer LeverkusenDrawWolfsburg
2-1 @ 9.89% (0.028 0.03)
2-0 @ 9.28% (-0.68 -0.68)
1-0 @ 8.68% (-0.375 -0.38)
3-1 @ 7.05% (-0.183 -0.18)
3-0 @ 6.62% (-0.689 -0.69)
4-1 @ 3.77% (-0.209 -0.21)
3-2 @ 3.76% (0.177 0.18)
4-0 @ 3.54% (-0.481 -0.48)
4-2 @ 2.01% (0.04 0.04)
5-1 @ 1.62% (-0.138 -0.14)
5-0 @ 1.52% (-0.256 -0.26)
Other @ 4.17%
Total : 61.91%
1-1 @ 9.25% (0.284 0.28)
2-2 @ 5.27% (0.387 0.39)
0-0 @ 4.06% (-0.057 -0.06)
3-3 @ 1.34% (0.153 0.15)
Other @ 0.21%
Total : 20.11%
1-2 @ 4.93% (0.49 0.49)
0-1 @ 4.32% (0.25 0.25)
0-2 @ 2.3% (0.287 0.29)
2-3 @ 1.87% (0.261 0.26)
1-3 @ 1.75% (0.286 0.29)
Other @ 2.8%
Total : 17.97%

How you voted: B. Leverkusen vs Wolfsburg

Bayer Leverkusen
66.1%
Draw
11.3%
Wolfsburg
22.6%
62
Head to Head
Mar 20, 2022 4.30pm
Wolfsburg
0-2
B. Leverkusen

Lacroix (83'), Vranckx (83')
Paulinho (86', 90+2')
Adli (9'), Demirbay (83'), Hincapie (83')
Oct 30, 2021 2.30pm
B. Leverkusen
0-2
Wolfsburg

Tah (28'), Alario (30'), Wirtz (54')
Nmecha (48'), Arnold (51')
Steffen (28'), Brooks (28')
Lacroix (90+5')
Jan 23, 2021 2.30pm
B. Leverkusen
0-1
Wolfsburg

Alario (90+2')
Baku (35')
Lacroix (90+3')
Sep 20, 2020 5pm
Wolfsburg
0-0
B. Leverkusen

Schlager (43')

Aranguiz (33'), Baumgartlinger (90+2')
May 26, 2020 7.30pm
B. Leverkusen
1-4
Wolfsburg
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern108203372626
2RB Leipzig106311551021
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1062226161020
4Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen104512116517
5Freiburg105231311217
6Union BerlinUnion Berlin1044298116
7Borussia DortmundDortmund105141818016
8Werder Bremen104331721-415
9Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach104241514114
10Mainz 05Mainz103431514113
11Stuttgart103431919013
12Wolfsburg103341918112
13Augsburg103341320-712
14Heidenheim103161315-210
15Hoffenheim102351319-69
16St Pauli10226712-58
17Holstein Kiel101271225-135
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum100281030-202
> Bundesliga Full Table


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