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Brighton logo
Premier League | Gameweek 11
Nov 6, 2021 at 5.30pm UK
Falmer Stadium
Newcastle logo

Brighton
1 - 1
Newcastle

Trossard (24' pen.)
Lallana (75'), Bissouma (84'), Maupay (84')
Sanchez (90+2')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Hayden (66')
Lascelles (12'), Murphy (60'), Shelvey (69'), Wilson (73')

Preview: Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Newcastle United - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Premier League clash between Brighton & Hove Albion and Newcastle United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Brighton & Hove Albion and Newcastle United will both be out to end respective winless runs during Saturday's Premier League clash at the Amex Stadium.

The Seagulls rescued a point in a 2-2 thriller with Liverpool last time out, while Graeme Jones's side went down 3-0 to leaders Chelsea.


Match preview

Brighton & Hove Albion manager Graham Potter on September 11, 2021© Reuters

Brighton's strong start to the season may have petered out slightly, but there was nothing uninspiring about the Seagulls' performance at Anfield, even after Liverpool went two goals ahead thanks to strikes from Jordan Henderson and Sadio Mane.

Enock Mwepu's wonder strike looped over Alisson Becker to half the deficit just before the break, and Adam Lallana would proceed to return with a bang against his former club as he set up Leandro Trossard's second-half equaliser in front of a silenced Kop.

While a point on their travels commands a lot of respect, Brighton's winless run in the division has now stretched to five games - four of which have ended with the spoils shared - and Graham Potter's side have now slipped to eighth in the rankings ahead of the international break.

The Seagulls were always expected to fall off the pace as winter approaches, but the draw on Merseyside shows that there is still plenty of fight within this Seagulls unit, who have only posted two defeats in league action so far this term.

Furthermore, only two of Brighton's last 10 Premier League encounters at the Amex have ended in defeat, and with their visitors still in managerial limbo, one would not put it past Potter's men to produce the goods once again on home soil.

Newcastle United's Callum Wilson celebrates scoring their first goal with Javier Manquillo and Jamaal Lascelles on October 23, 2021© Reuters

Had it been Steve Bruce, Unai Emery, Eddie Howe or Graeme Jones in charge of Newcastle for the visit of Chelsea, the end result was always likely to have been the same, as the Champions League holders eased to a 3-0 success at St James' Park.

Reece James scored two thunderous efforts on the day before Jorginho's penalty wrapped up all three points for the Blues, and Newcastle were dealt a further blow this week after Emery confirmed that he would be staying at Villarreal amid rumoured interest from Tyneside.

With ex-Bournemouth coach Howe now thought to be the leading target to take over, Newcastle will seek to finally pick up their first league win of the season at the 11th attempt, as their current barren run sees them sit 19th in the table with four points to their name.

Jones's side can take solace in the fact that they have found the back of the net in each of their last four away games, but 10 goals conceded on the road so far is a worrying statistic, and Brighton know a thing or two about scoring in this fixture.

Indeed, the Seagulls claimed a pair of 3-0 wins against Newcastle during the 2020-21 season, and the Magpies are now winless in eight top-flight matches with Brighton since both sides earned promotion back to the big time for the 2017-18 campaign.

Brighton & Hove Albion Premier League form:
  • W
  • D
  • D
  • D
  • L
  • D

Brighton & Hove Albion form (all competitions):
  • D
  • D
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • D

Newcastle United Premier League form:
  • D
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • L



Team News

Brighton & Hove Albion's Danny Welbeck celebrates scoring against Leicester City on September 19, 2021© Reuters

Danny Welbeck and Dan Burn are still injury concerns for Brighton - but the latter has an outside chance of making the cut - while Steven Alzate is also out until 2022 after going under the knife to address an ankle injury.

However, the Seagulls did not pick up any fresh concerns in the draw at Anfield and ought to persist with a similar 4-2-3-1 setup here, which would see Neal Maupay once again start on the bench.

Joel Veltman continues to hold his place at right-back over Tariq Lamptey, while Yves Bissouma should partner Mwepu in the engine room once again.

Newcastle are also relatively well-stocked for this encounter, with Freddie Woodman still out with a muscle injury and Paul Dummett stepping up his recovery from a calf problem.

Callum Wilson is particularly fond of a goal at the Amex - scoring two and setting up two more on the South Coast in the Premier League - and the Englishman will once again lead the line with Allan Saint-Maximin.

Joe Willock, Jonjo Shelvey and Miguel Almiron all provide alternative midfield options for the Magpies, with Ryan Fraser failing to impress since being recalled to the first XI, and Martin Dubravka will hope to come back into contention to displace Karl Darlow in goal.

Brighton & Hove Albion possible starting lineup:
Sanchez; Veltman, Dunk, Duffy, Cucurella; Mwepu, Bissouma; March, Lallana, Moder; Trossard

Newcastle United possible starting lineup:
Dubravka; Krafth, Lascelles, Clark; Manquillo, Longstaff, Hayden, Almiron, Ritchie; Saint-Maximin, Wilson


SM words green background

We say: Brighton & Hove Albion 2-1 Newcastle United

While Mwepu will surely never recreate his Anfield spectacular again in his career, there are goals to be had for this exciting Brighton side against a leaky Newcastle defence.

With the visitors unlikely to have a new manager in place for the weekend and struggling for inspiration in all corners of the pitch, we expect the Seagulls to regain some momentum with a hard-fought success.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



ID:469240:1false2false3false:QQ:: from db desktop :LenBod:collect12784:
Written by
Ben Knapton

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brighton & Hove Albion win with a probability of 49.78%. A draw had a probability of 27% and a win for Newcastle United had a probability of 23.18%.

The most likely scoreline for a Brighton & Hove Albion win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.15%) and 2-1 (8.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.51%), while for a Newcastle United win it was 0-1 (8.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Brighton vs Newcastle

Brighton & Hove Albion
76.9%
Draw
13.8%
Newcastle United
9.2%
195
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Allan Saint-Maximin celebrates scoring for Newcastle United on October 3, 2020
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