Fresh off the back of sealing their place in the Champions League group stages with a 2-1 aggregate win over PSV Eindhoven, Benfica take on Tondela in Lisbon on Sunday.
Tondela will head into the game looking to get one over their hosts having failed to pick up a win in each of their last six meetings since 2018.
Match preview
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Boasting a 2-1 first-leg win, Benfica held on firmly for a goalless draw away at PSV Eindhoven on Tuesday to confirm their return to the Champions League.
In a game where Jorge Jesus's men played with 10 men for over an hour, the Dutch side failed to make use of their numerical advantage as they were guilty of wastefulness at the attacking end of the pitch.
Benfica return home where they are one of two sides with a 100% record following a 2-0 victory over Gil Vicente in their last Primeira Liga outing.
Russian goalkeeper Stanislav Kritsyuk put on a clinic between the sticks to keep the scores level for most of the game, but Lucas Verissimo broke the deadlock in the 84th minute before Alejandro Grimaldo struck two minutes later to hand the Gilistas their first defeat of the season.
As Aguias, who have won all but one of their seven games in all competitions this season, could not have asked for a better start to the new campaign and will look to keep the ball rolling in a bid to better their third-placed finish last season.
Meanwhile, Tondela's opening-day victory over Santa Clara has so far proven to be a mere fluke as they have failed to pick up a point from the subsequent two games.
Their most recent defeat came at the hands of Portimonense on Sunday as goals from Beto, Aylton Boa Morte and Fali Cande handed Paulo Sergio's men their second win in three games.
Tondela have now lost five of their last six league outings, including three straight defeats at the close of the 2020-21 season, where they finished in 13th place, two points and three places above the relegation playoff spot.
While Pako Ayestaran's side will be looking to end this dire run, they face the uphill task of facing an opposing side who have been imperious in the last 12 meetings between the sides, claiming 10 wins and one draw.
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Team News
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Following his return from injury, Darwin Nunez was handed a 20-minute cameo against Gil Vicente, but after missing the trip to PSV three days later, the Uruguayan forward is a doubt for the hosts, who could be monitoring his fitness.
Having missed their last three games through a thigh injury, former Tottenham Hotspur man Jan Vertonghen returned to the fold as a substitute last time out and the veteran defender could be handed a place in the XI at the expense of Felipe Morato.
However, Portuguese defender Ferro and Swiss forward Haris Seferovic will play no part in Sunday's game with both players currently nursing muscle injuries.
Meanwhile, Tondela defender Manu Hernando remains ruled out with a knee problem and the new signing continues to wait for his debut following his transfer from Spain.
Having missed their last three outings since starting against Gil Vicente in the Taca da Liga qualifiers, doubts are also cast over 21-year-old forward Ruben Fonseca, who recently returned to the club following a loan move.
With that said, we expect Ayestaran to stick to his frontmen from last week, meaning that Daniel dos Anjos could lead the attack ahead of Salvador Agra, Rafael Barbosa and Jhon Murillo providing the needed services.
Benfica possible starting lineup:
Vlachodimos; Lucas, Otamendi, Vertonghen; Goncalves, Weigl, Mario, Grimaldo; Pizzi, Yaremchuk, R Silva
Tondela possible starting lineup:
Trigueira; Bebeto, Goncalves, Quaresma, Khacef; Dantas, Pedro; Murillo, Agra, Barbosa, Anjos
We say: Benfica 3-1 Tondela
Benfica have enjoyed a superb start to the season, picking up six wins from their seven games and confirming their return to the Champions League group stages.
Next up for the 37-time Primeira Liga champions is a Tondela side who they have been dominant against in their recent meetings and we predict this trend will continue with them coming out victorious on Sunday.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 71.09%. A draw had a probability of 17.7% and a win for Tondela had a probability of 11.25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.78%) and 2-1 (9.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.39%), while for a Tondela win it was 0-1 (3.7%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
