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Dortmund logo
Bundesliga | Gameweek 28
May 26, 2020 at 5.30pm UK
Signal Iduna Park
Bayern logo

Dortmund
0 - 1
Bayern


Hummels (13'), Dahoud (67')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Kimmich (43')
Muller (66'), Davies (74')

Preview: Borussia Dortmund vs. Bayern Munich - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Bundesliga clash between Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich, including team news and predicted lineups.

Second will welcome first in the Bundesliga on Tuesday night as Bayern Munich prepare to make the trip to Signal Iduna Park to take on Borussia Dortmund.

Both teams have picked up six points from their two matches since the Bundesliga resumed earlier this month, and there are just four points between them ahead of the eye-catching clash.


Match preview

Borussia Dortmund players celebrate scoring against Wolfsburg on May 23, 2020© Reuters

The title will not be won or lost on Tuesday night, but there is simply no downplaying the importance of the clash between the top two teams in German football. Dortmund will enter the match in strong form, having beaten Schalke 04 4-0 and Wolfsburg 2-0 since returning to action on May 16.

Lucien Favre's side have actually now won their last six Bundesliga matches dating back to the start of February, while they have only been on the losing side on four occasions in Germany's top flight this season.

BVB have not actually won the league since 2011-12, but a victory in this game would send out a strong message. Indeed, the gap from first to second is currently four points, meaning that three points for the home side would leave them within touching distance of their rivals.

Dortmund will be able to call upon one of the outstanding young forwards in European football as Erling Braut Haaland prepares to take to the field. The 19-year-old has scored 10 times in 10 Bundesliga matches since arriving from Red Bull Salzburg, including a goal in the 4-0 success over Schalke on May 16.

There is no question that the hosts have one of the most exciting forward lines in European football, but they have lost 4-0 and 5-0 in their last two Bundesliga clashes with Bayern.

Bayern Munich players celebrate scoring their fifth goal against Eintracht Frankfurt on May 23, 2020© Reuters

Bayern have actually won five of the last six Bundesliga meetings between the two sides, although Dortmund recorded a 3-2 victory when they last locked horns at Signal Iduna Park in the league on November 2018.

Like Dortmund, the German champions have a striker in excellent form, with Robert Lewandowski managing 41 goals in all competitions during the 2019-20 campaign. The 31-year-old has scored in Bayern's two matches since Germany's top flight resumed, meanwhile, and will be desperate to add to his tally here.

Bayern recorded a 2-0 victory over Union Berlin on their return to action on May 17 before beating Eintracht Frankfurt 5-2 on Saturday afternoon. Frankfurt actually clawed back from 3-0 behind to trail 3-2 early in the second period, but the champions found two more goals in the 20-minute period that followed.

Hansi Flick's side have not been without their problems this season, but they lead the division after 27 matches and have scored an impressive 80 times, six more than Dortmund.

Bayern will also enter the match off the back of six straight league victories, while they have not lost in Germany's top flight since Borussia Monchengladbach beat them towards the start of December.

Dortmund Bundesliga form: WWWWWW
Dortmund form (all competitions): WWWLWW

Bayern Bundesliga form: WWWWWW
Bayern form (all competitions): WWWWWW


Team News

Mats Hummels in action for Borussia Dortmund on September 17, 2019© Reuters

Dortmund are sweating on the fitness of former Bayern defender Mats Hummels, who had to be replaced against Wolfsburg on Saturday with an Achilles problem.

Hummels is being tipped to recover in time for Tuesday's clash, but Marco Reus, Nico Schulz and Dan-Axel Zagadou will again miss out for the home side through injury, while Axel Witsel remains a doubt.

Jadon Sancho has appeared off the bench in Dortmund's last two matches, and it seems likely that the England international will return to the starting XI for this match.

Emre Can could also start, having made his return from injury off the bench last time out, while Sancho's possible inclusion could see Julian Brandt drop into a deeper role.

As for Bayern, Phillipe Coutinho and Corentin Tolisso are still on the sidelines with ankle problems, while Niklas Sule and Thiago are again expected to miss out for the champions.

There might be just the one change from the side that started against Frankfurt, with Serge Gnabry pushing to replace Ivan Perisic on the left of an attack which should also include the in-form Thomas Muller, Kingsley Coman and Lewandowski.

Muller has 17 Bundesliga assists to his name this season, while Coman impressed against Frankfurt and is expected to keep his spot in a wide position.

Dortmund possible starting lineup:
Burki; Piszczek, Hummels, Akanji; Hakimi, Can, Brandt, Guerreiro; Sancho, Haaland, Hazard

Bayern possible starting lineup:
Neuer; Pavard, Boateng, Alaba, Davies; Kimmich, Goretzka; Gnabry, Muller, Coman; Lewandowski


Sports Mole Logo

We say: Dortmund 2-2 Bayern

There has not actually been a draw between these two teams in the Bundesliga since March 2016, but we are finding it very difficult to separate them in this match. Both teams have serious firepower in the final third, and there has been at least four goals scored in their last six matches in Germany's top flight.

BVB will hope that home advantage still counts despite the fact that there will be no supporters inside the stadium, but we are backing a 2-2 draw at Signal Iduna Park.



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Written by
Matt Law

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 52.48%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 25.92% and a draw had a probability of 21.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (6.93%) and 0-1 (6.9%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 (6.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.4%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.


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