Seeking to bounce back from their midweek Champions League defeat, Bayern Munich play host to Bavarian rivals Augsburg at the Allianz Arena on Saturday afternoon.
Die Fuggerstadter claimed a surprise triumph in the reverse fixture against the perennial Bundesliga winners, securing a 2-1 victory in November last year.
Match preview
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Bayern Munich's quest towards Champions League glory has become more challenging after they suffered a surprise 1-0 defeat away at Villarreal in the first leg of their quarter-final clash on Wednesday night.
Arnaut Danjuma's eighth-minute opener was enough to claim an impressive victory for the Yellow Submarine, condemning the Bavarian outfit to their first away defeat in the competition for nearly five years.
Julian Nagelsmann's side were outclassed in all departments by the Yellow Submarine and they were fortunate to come away from Spain only one goal down. One ray of hope for Bayern is that they demolished Red Bull Salzburg 7-1 in the second leg of their last-16 tie, having played out an underwhelming 1-1 draw in the first leg.
Bayern will now briefly turn their attention back to the Bundesliga, with Nagelsmann's side in the driving seat to clinch their 10th successive title as they currently sit nine points clear at the summit with just six games remaining.
The Bavarian side have only lost four of their 28 league games this season, but their second, as mentioned previously, came at the hands of Saturday's opponents Augsburg in the reverse fixture, with goals from Mads Pedersen and Andre Hahn sealing a famous derby win for Die Fuggerstadter, who only had 20% possession throughout the 90 minutes.
Bayern need just 10 points from their remaining six matches to win the title and Nagelsmann will be confident that his players can return to winning ways this weekend, with a strong performance required to boost morale heading into next week's crucial Champions League second leg.
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Augsburg have turned their fortunes around at a crucial point in the season, accumulating 10 points from their last five Bundesliga games which has helped them to move further away from the relegation zone.
Markus Weinzierl's side have won three of their last four matches, including Wednesday's 2-1 home victory against Mainz, with Jeffrey Gouweleeuw and Ruben Vargas both getting their names on the scoresheet.
Die Fuggerstadter are now on course to maintain their top-flight status for an 11th successive year, as they currently sit 13th in the table and six points above the relegation zone.
Since the turn of the year, Augsburg have found their form in front of goal, scoring in all 11 Bundesliga games in 2022 and netting at least twice on seven of these occasions. Weinzierl's men have also scored in six of their last eight Bavarian derbies against Bayern.
While November's win against Bayern will provide Augsburg with plenty of confidence on Saturday, they are sure to take note of their last visit to the Allianz Arena, where they were beaten 5-2 in May last season.
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Team News
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Bayern Munich will be without Corentin Tolisso (muscle) and Bouna Sarr (knee) due to injury, while Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting remains sidelined after testing positive for COVID-19 last week.
After coming on as a second-half substitute, Leon Goretzka was forced off in the closing stages against Villarreal with a nasty cut around his eye, but the midfielder is set to be in contention to feature this weekend.
Alphonso Davies made his first Bayern appearance since December in midweek after recovering from a heart condition, and even though the Canadian struggled on his return to the starting lineup, he is expected to retain his place at left-back, joining Lucas Hernandez, Niklas Sule and Benjamin Pavard in the back four.
Star striker Robert Lewandowski is another who is set to start on Saturday; the 33-year-old has scored 22 goals in 18 games against Augsburg – only against Borussia Dortmund (26) and Wolfsburg (24) has the veteran marksman scored more goals against an opponent in his entire career.
As for Augsburg, Felix Uduokhai (hip), Noah Sarenren Bazee and Tobias Strobl (both ACL) are ruled out with injuries, the latter two are sidelined for the rest of the season.
The visitors will also be without the suspended Carlos Gruezo, who picked up his fifth yellow card of the campaign shortly after coming on as a substitute against Mainz.
Alfred Finnbogason is doubtful with a muscle problem, so Florian Niederlechner is set to lead the line, with support provided in attack by Hahn and Pedersen.
Bayern Munich possible starting lineup:
Neuer; Pavard, Sule, Hernandez, Davies; Kimmich, Goretzka; Coman, Muller, Sane; Lewandowski
Augsburg possible starting lineup:
Gikiewicz; Gumny, Oxford, Gouweleeuw; Caligiuri, Maier, Dorsch, Iago; Hahn, Pedersen; Niederlechner
We say: Bayern Munich 3-1 Augsburg
Given Augsburg's form and most recent win against Bayern, they will fancy their chances at the Allianz Arena, and another victory this weekend would all but secure their Bundesliga status.
However, the hosts will be fired up to not only bounce back from their midweek defeat, but to also get revenge against Die Fuggerstadter, and Nagelsmann's men should have all the resources to claim maximum points on home soil.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 91.68%. A draw had a probability of 6.1% and a win for Augsburg had a probability of 2.21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 3-0 with a probability of 12.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 4-0 (11.63%) and 2-0 (10.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (2.89%), while for an Augsburg win it was 0-1 (0.79%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.
