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[monks data]
Leverkusen logo
Bundesliga | Gameweek 2
Sep 26, 2020 at 2.30pm UK
BayArena
Leipzig logo

B. Leverkusen
1 - 1
RB Leipzig

Demirbay (20')
Demirbay (19')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Forsberg (14')
Klostermann (45'), Haidara (65'), Adams (90+2')

Preview: Bayer Leverkusen vs. RB Leipzig - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig, including team news and predicted lineups.

RB Leipzig will be looking to pick up from where they left off on their travels when they take on Bayer Leverkusen on Saturday afternoon.

The Red Bulls won their last four away games last season and went seven without defeat, but Leverkusen have been solid on home soil in 2020, winning six out of eight at BayArena.


Match preview

RB Leipzig head coach Julian Nagelsmann pictured on May 27, 2020© Reuters

Many wondered how Leipzig would cope after losing Patrick Schick and club-record goalscorer Timo Werner in the summer, especially on the back of a shortened summer break.

That question was pretty emphatically answered on the opening weekend as last term's Champions League semi-finalists made light work of Mainz 05 in a 3-1 home win.

Emil Forsberg opened the scoring from the penalty spot, while Yussuf Poulsen and Amadou Haidara were also on target as Leipzig hit the ground running.

The Red Bulls have now lost just one of their last 16 Bundesliga matches - 2-0 versus Borussia Dortmund towards the end of last season - and boast that impressive away return.

This trip to BayArena will be a difficult one for Nagelsmann's charges, however, as Leverkusen have only lost their first home match of a campaign once before.

Bayer Leverkusen manager Peter Bosz pictured in February 2019© Reuters

Die Werkself's 2020-21 campaign got off to a bit of a slow start last weekend, though, having been held to a goalless draw at Wolfsburg.

Like Nagelsmann, Peter Bosz is also having to cope with the loss of some key attackers, with Kevin Volland and Kai Havertz leaving for Monaco and Chelsea respectively.

Bayer did nab Schick from Roma during the summer, however, and there will be plenty of focus on him this weekend against the side he represented last season.

Going one better than last term's fifth-placed finish will be the aim for Bosz, but his side will have to improve on last week's showing if they are to achieve that.

This is not a fixture Leverkusen tend to do well in, either, winning just one of their last eight top-flight encounters with Leipzig - 4-1 at BayArena in April 2018.

In fact, Leverkusen have won none of their four Bundesliga home games against Leipzig - their worst-such record against any side in the division.

Bayer Leverkusen Bundesliga form: D
Bayer Leverkusen form (all competitions): WD

RB Leipzig Bundesliga form: W
RB Leipzig form (all competitions): WW


Team News

Leon Bailey celebrates scoring for Bayern Leverkusen on November 30, 2019© Reuters

Schick, who was given a 30-minute runout from the bench last weekend but could not find a breakthrough goal, will be pushing for a start against his former side.

Should that be the case, Argentina international Lucas Alario will be the player to make way for the home side.

Leon Bailey is another who could return to the starting lineup this weekend, while Nadiem Amiri and Jonathan Tah and Wendell are also in Bosz's thoughts.

As for Leipzig, they secured the services of Norwegian striker Alexander Sorloth earlier this week and could hand him his Bundesliga debut at BayArena.

Benjamin Henrichs and Hwang Hee-chan, another who joined this summer, may earn recalls to the starting XI after being introduced from the bench last time out.

Poulsen and Forsberg have each scored three Bundesliga goals against Leverkusen, which is more than any other players in this fixture.

Bayer Leverkusen possible starting lineup:
Hradecky; L.Bender, S.Bender, Tapsoba, Sinkgraven; Wirtz, Aranguiz, Demirbay; Bellarabi, Schick, Diaby

RB Leipzig possible starting lineup:
Gulacsi; Klostermann, Upamecano, Halstenberg; Haidara, Sabitzer, Kampl, Angelino; Olmo, Forsberg; Poulsen


SM words green background

We say: Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 RB Leipzig

Both teams are having to cope with the loss of key men. Leipzig hit the ground running with a routine home win on the opening weekend, whereas Leverkusen were held by Wolfsburg, and we can see the visitors prevailing in this one.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting that both teams will score (BTTS - yes) in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.BTTS Yes:data


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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 43.95%. A win for Bayer Leverkusen had a probability of 32.85% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.03%) and 0-2 (6.09%). The likeliest Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-1 (7.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.35%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood.


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Game History

Who will win Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig?

Bayer Leverkusen
0.0%
Draw
0.0%
RB Leipzig
0.0%
0
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Kai Havertz during Leverkusen training on August 5, 2020
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Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern108203372626
2RB Leipzig106311551021
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1062226161020
4Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen104512116517
5Freiburg105231311217
6Union BerlinUnion Berlin1044298116
7Borussia DortmundDortmund105141818016
8Werder Bremen104331721-415
9Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach104241514114
10Mainz 05Mainz103431514113
11Stuttgart103431919013
12Wolfsburg103341918112
13Augsburg103341320-712
14Heidenheim103161315-210
15Hoffenheim102351319-69
16St Pauli10226712-58
17Holstein Kiel101271225-135
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum100281030-202


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