One of the standout fixtures on the La Liga calendar will take place at Camp Nou on Sunday afternoon, as Barcelona welcome the reigning champions Atletico Madrid.
Barcelona are currently fifth in the table, boasting 35 points from their 21 matches this season, while Atletico occupy fourth, one point above their opponents this weekend.
Match preview
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There is no getting away from the fact that it has been a tough season for Barcelona, with the Catalan outfit off the pace when it comes to the title race, sitting some 15 points behind leaders Real Madrid.
Xavi's side are also outside of the Champions League spots, currently sitting fifth in the division, but they are only one point behind Atletico and five behind third-placed Real Betis with a game in hand.
Barcelona are unbeaten in La Liga since the start of December and have won three of their last five, including a 1-0 success over Alaves before the break, with Frenkie de Jong scoring the only goal of the contest in the final exchanges to secure a huge three points.
The Catalan outfit also enjoyed a successful January transfer window, adding Ferran Torres, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Adama Traore, but the club were unable to shift Ousmane Dembele, with the Frenchman remaining at the club despite widespread speculation.
Barcelona have not actually beaten Atletico in the league since December 2019, losing two of the last three meetings, including a 2-0 defeat in the reverse match at Wanda Metropolitano back in October, while the points were shared in a goalless draw at Camp Nou last season.
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Atletico, meanwhile, have also struggled to show their best form this season, collecting 36 points from 21 matches, which has left them in fourth position in the table.
The reigning champions are 14 points behind leaders Real Madrid and recently lost four league matches in a row, but they have recovered to take seven points from the last nine available in Spain's top flight.
Atletico, who will take on Manchester United in the knockout round of the Champions League, have actually lost two of their last three matches in all competitions, but the capital giants recorded a 3-2 victory over Valencia in the league last time out, with Diego Simeone's side scoring twice in the final moments to turn the game around.
Indeed, the Red and Whites trailed 2-1 heading into the final minute of normal time against Los Che, but Angel Correa levelled before Mario Hermoso came up with a 93rd-minute winner in the five-goal thriller.
Atletico have not been able to launch a strong defence of their title, but it is impossible to imagine them finishing outside of the top four, and there is simply no downplaying the importance of this contest, with both managers hoping to secure what would be a huge three points.
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Team News
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Barcelona will be missing Clement Lenglet, Samuel Umtiti, Ansu Fati, Sergi Roberto, Eric Garcia and Alejandro Balde through injury, while Memphis Depay is also out with a muscular issue.
Aubameyang and Traore are both available following moves to the club, and the pair are expected to start on the bench, with Luuk de Jong, who has scored twice in his last three league matches, potentially retaining his spot at centre-forward.
Gavi is available following a league suspension and could start in a forward area, while Dani Alves might get the nod over Sergino Dest at right-back.
Ronald Araujo's future remains the subject of much speculation, with the centre-back entering the final 18 months of his contract at the club, but he should feature alongside Gerard Pique at the back, while Dembele is back in the squad.
As for Atletico, Geoffrey Kondogbia, Antoine Griezmann and Marcos Llorente are all expected to miss the contest through injury.
Llorente's absence could lead to new signing Daniel Wass making his debut at right-back, while Stefan Savic is expected to feature alongside Jose Gimenez in the middle of the defence.
Simeone has decisions to make further forward, with Joao Felix, Correa and Matheus Cunha pushing to start alongside Luis Suarez, with Thomas Lemar and Yannick Carrasco featuring in the wide areas.
Hector Herrera is also an option to strengthen the midfield, but Koke should be joined by Rodrigo De Paul in a 4-4-2 formation, with Hermoso potentially moving across to left-back.
Barcelona possible starting lineup:
Ter Stegen; Alves, Araujo, Pique, Alba; F de Jong, Busquets, Pedri; Torres, L de Jong, Gavi
Atletico Madrid possible starting lineup:
Oblak; Wass, Gimenez, Savic, Hermoso; Carrasco, De Paul, Koke, Lemar; Correa, Suarez
We say: Barcelona 1-1 Atletico Madrid
This is a really, really difficult match to call, as both teams are still capable of putting in strong performances despite their issues this season. Simeone will demand an improvement from a defence which has been far from secure this term, and we can see a relatively cagey contest finishing all square.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 45.72%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 28.97% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.22%) and 2-0 (7.89%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 (7.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.01%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Barcelona would win this match.
