Barcelona will be looking to secure an advantage when they welcome Napoli to Camp Nou on Thursday evening for the first leg of their knockout round playoff clash in the Europa League.
The Catalan giants dropped into this competition after finishing third in their Champions League group, while Napoli finished second in their Europa League section behind Spartak Moscow.
Match preview
© Reuters
Thursday's contest will be Barcelona's first ever clash in the Europa League, having failed to progress to the knockout round of the Champions League for the first time in 17 years, finishing third in Group E behind Bayern Munich and Benfica, losing three of their six games in the process.
This is not the tournament that the Catalan giants will want to be competing in, but it represents their only realistic chance of silverware this term, having been eliminated from the Copa del Rey, while they sit fourth in La Liga, 15 points behind leaders Real Madrid following Sunday's 2-2 draw with Espanyol in the derby.
Barcelona, who lost to Paris Saint-Germain in last season's Champions League round of 16, last played in the UEFA Cup back in 2003-04, reaching the fourth round of the competition before losing to Celtic.
The La Liga outfit have also worryingly lost three of their last five European home fixtures, but they are unbeaten in their last eight UEFA Cup matches at Camp Nou, recording five wins in the process.
Barcelona last locked horns with Napoli in the last-16 stage of the Champions League back in 2020, running out 4-2 winners on aggregate, drawing 1-1 in Italy before winning the reverse match 3-1 at Camp Nou.
© Reuters
Barcelona might be lacking experience in this competition, but the same cannot be said for Napoli, who are appearing in the knockout round of the Europa League for the ninth time, which is a competition record alongside Ajax and Olympiacos.
The Italian outfit have been eliminated in the round of 32 on five occasions, while they reached the round of 16 in 2013-14, quarter-finals in 2018-19 and semi-finals in 2014-15; the Serie A giants were underwhelming in the competition last term, though, losing to Granada in the round of 32.
Napoli booked their spot in the knockout round of this season's competition by finishing second in Group C, picking up 10 points from their six matches against Spartak Moscow, Leicester City and Legia Warsaw.
Luciano Spalletti's side will enter this contest off the back of a 1-1 draw with Inter Milan in Serie A on Saturday, which has left them in third position in the table, just two points behind leaders AC Milan, so they are very much in a title race this season.
Gli Azzurri have won six, drawn six and lost eight of their previous 20 matches against Spanish clubs in UEFA competition, while they have lost on seven of their 10 visits to Spain, including a 3-1 defeat when they travelled to Barcelona in the last-16 stage of the 2019-20 Champions League.
- D
- L
- L
- W
- W
- D
- D
- L
- W
- W
- L
- W
- W
- L
- W
- W
- W
- D
Team News
© Reuters
Barcelona will be without the services of Samuel Umtiti, Ansu Fati, Sergi Roberto and Alejandro Balde through injury, while Clement Lenglet and Memphis Depay remain fitness doubts.
Ronald Araujo is also out due to the problem that he picked up against Espanyol at the weekend, so Eric Garcia could come into the back four, while Sergino Dest should feature at right-back, as Dani Alves has not been included in the squad for the latter stages of the Europa League.
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is pushing to make his full debut for the Catalan giants and could start at centre-forward with support from Adama Traore and Gavi.
Ousmane Dembele is also pushing to be involved from the start, with head coach Xavi insisting that the France international will be an important player in the final months of the season.
As for Napoli, Matteo Politano and Hirving Lozano are both injured, while on-loan Manchester United defender Axel Tuanzebe has not been included in the Europa League squad.
Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa is expected to feature in the starting XI, having come off the bench against Inter at the weekend, while Eljif Elmas should replace Politano following his injury last time out.
Head coach Spalletti is unlikely to spring any surprises when it comes to his team selection, with Lorenzo Insigne set to feature off the left and Victor Osimhen playing at centre-forward, while Fabian Ruiz, who has previously been linked with Barcelona, will operate in the middle of the park.
Barcelona possible starting lineup:
Ter Stegen: Dest, Pique, Garcia, Alba; F de Jong, Busquets, Pedri; Traore, Aubameyang, Gavi
Napoli possible starting lineup:
Ospina; Di Lorenzo, Rrahmani, Koulibaly, Mario Rui; Anguissa, Ruiz; Elmas, Zielinski, Insigne; Osimhen
We say: Barcelona 2-2 Napoli
This should be a cracking game of football, as both sides will believe that they can hurt the other in the final third of the field. Goals must be expected at Camp Nou on Thursday, and we are backing an entertaining 2-2 draw, which would leave the tie delicately poised ahead of the return fixture in Italy.
Top tip
Matt Law
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 38.86%. A win for Barcelona had a probability of 37.07% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.32%) and 0-2 (5.66%). The likeliest Barcelona win was 2-1 (8.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
