After their four-game winning run was brought to an end last time out, AZ Alkmaar welcome FC Twente to the AFAS Stadion on Saturday aiming to get back to winning ways.
On the other hand, Twente are unbeaten in their last four Eredivisie matches, including a streak of three consecutive stalemates.
Match preview
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AZ were unable to record a fifth league win on the bounce, succumbing to a 2-1 defeat versus Vitesse at the GelreDome on Sunday.
Pascal Jansen's men had the chance to pull seven points clear of their hosts, but their four-point lead has now been cut to one.
The Cheeseheads went behind 15 minutes before the interval as Lois Openda was on target for the 10th time this season to give his side a well-deserved lead.
With only 18 minutes left to play in the second half, things went from bad to worse for the visitors when Jacob Rasmussen doubled Vitesse's lead with a tidy finish.
AZ had a man advantage for the final 11 minutes of the tie after Enzo Cornelisse was sent off for a professional last-man tackle.
Saturday's hosts pulled one back through Jesper Karlsson, but that proved to be inconsequential as the 10 men held out for a crucial win in the race for third spot.
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Twente were held to a 1-1 draw by Willem II on Saturday, and they missed the chance to move above Utrecht into seventh place on the log.
Ron Jans's men took the lead midway through the second half, but they were unable to see the game out as they conceded an equaliser in the 81st minute to Vangelis Pavlidis.
Next up for The Tukkers is a trip to a ground where they have lost their last five matches in all competitions by a combined score of 14-2.
Saturday's visitors were also beaten by the hosts in December's reverse fixture at the Grolsch Veste Stadium, and they have it all to do if they are to prevent AZ from completing a league double over them.
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Team News
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AZ's Fredrik Midtsjo has been ruled out for the match due to a torn muscle which he sustained in last month's win over Feyenoord.
Rens van der Wacht's involvement is still hanging in the balance as he hopes to shake off a knock just in time to play a part in the clash.
The duo of Julio Pleguezuelo and Vaclav Cerny picked up season-ending knee injuries a week apart in February, and they are unavailable for this one.
Twenty-year-old Kik Pierie is out with a minor illness, leaving Casper Staring with another opportunity to feature in the heart of the away side's defence.
Mees Hilgers has had just 15 minutes of playing time with the senior team so far, and he is ruled out for the game due to a hip injury.
AZ Alkmaar possible starting lineup:
Bizot; Wijndal, Martins Indi, Hatzidiakos, Sugawara; Stengs, Koopmeiners, Midtsjo; Karlsson, Boadu, Gudmundsson
FC Twente possible starting lineup:
Drommel; Dumic, Staring, Pleguezuelo, Smal; Zerrouki, Roemeratoe, Bosch; Menig, Danilo, Van Leeuwen
We say: AZ Alkmaar 3-1 FC Twente
AZ Alkmaar were brought down to earth last time out, but they will look to bounce back as soon as possible. We are backing them to do so, and claim a relatively comfortable victory over a spirited Twente side.
Top tip
Adepoju Marvellous
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 62.12%. A draw had a probability of 20.1% and a win for FC Twente had a probability of 17.77%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.4%) and 1-0 (8.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.27%), while for a FC Twente win it was 1-2 (4.88%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
