The Bundesliga will become the first major league to return amid the coronavirus pandemic this weekend, with a full set of fixtures ending a shutdown which has lasted for more than two months.
It is not quite business as usual with all matches taking place behind closed doors, but Augsburg and Wolfsburg still have work to do regardless when they face off at the WWK Arena, almost exactly one year on from Wolfsburg beating the same opponents 8-1.
Match preview
© Reuters
The challenge of returning to action after an unscheduled break of more than two months is one which faces every club in the Bundesliga, but may be one which some cope with better than others.
For new Augsburg boss Heiko Herrlich it has been a much longer wait for his first match than he would have expected when he was appointed on March 10 - just days before the shutdown came into force.
Indeed, that wait will go on for at least another week after he remarkably broke quarantine rules in order to buy toothpaste this week, meaning that he is banned from being in the dugout for what would have been his maiden game as manager.
The 48-year-old, who has been out of work since 2018, will have no doubt used the time to devise a plan which will see Augsburg climb away from the relegation zone, but his lack of face-to-face time with his new players raises another hurdle for the club to overcome.
As a club, though, the stoppage in football probably came at a good time for Augsburg; they had lost four and won none of their previous five outings and have only picked up four points from the 24 on offer so far this calendar year.
That run has seen them drop to 14th place, with only five points now separating them from the relegation playoff place, although they are also just five points adrift of 10th.
Augsburg have also picked up two-thirds of their points at home this season and so will welcome the chance to return to action in their own backyard, even if they will be without the support of their fans inside the stadium.
© Reuters
In Wolfsburg they face a team with an away record as good as their home record, though, and the visitors will no doubt look to gain an advantage they otherwise would not have had with the match being held behind closed doors.
The Wolves were involved in one of the last major games to take place before lockdown - a Europa League defeat to Shakhtar Donetsk - but before that they were on a six-game unbeaten streak stretching back to January.
That was a welcome return to form, winning more matches in that six-game run than they had in their previous 12 league outings before that, but they still have work to do to get themselves back into the European picture.
Oliver Glasner's side sit seventh, one point adrift of the final Europa League spot, which is realistically the ceiling of their ambition for the remainder of the campaign with fifth place comfortably clear.
With sixth-placed Schalke returning to action against rivals Borussia Dortmund, Wolfsburg would see any positive result in this match as a great chance to leapfrog them in the table.
Augsburg Bundesliga form: WLDLLL
Wolfsburg Bundesliga form: WDWWDD
Wolfsburg form (all competitions): WWWDDL
Team News
© Reuters
One positive of the Bundesliga being suspended is that most niggles or relatively minor injury problems have been given time to clear up.
However, there are still absentees for Saturday's match, most notably Wolfsburg top scorer Wout Weghorst.
The striker's fifth yellow card of the season last time out rules him out of this match through suspension, meaning that Admir Mehmedi and Daniel Ginczek could lead the line for the visitors.
Augsburg, meanwhile, are missing the injured Simon Asta but otherwise should have a full squad to choice from for their first match under the new manager.
Top-scorer Florian Niederlechner is expected to lead the line, while left-back Philipp Max will aim to continue his fine form in front of goal this season having netted seven times.
Augsburg possible starting lineup:
Luthe; Jedvaj, Gouweleeuw, Uduokhai, Max; Gruezo, Baier; Richter, Lowen, Vargas; Niederlechner
Wolfsburg possible starting lineup:
Casteels; Mbabu, Knoche, Brooks, Roussillon; Steffen, Arnold, Schlager, Brekalo; Mehmedi, Ginczek
We say: Augsburg 0-1 Wolfsburg
Wolfsburg beat Augsburg 8-1 almost exactly a year ago to the day that this fixture takes place, but the goalless draw in the reverse is likely to be much closer to what will happen this time around.
It remains to be seen what fitness levels will be like yet alone the rustiness of players on the ball, so we are expecting a low-scoring affair which Wolfsburg will just about edge.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wolfsburg win with a probability of 44.52%. A win for Augsburg had a probability of 31.98% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wolfsburg win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.52%) and 0-2 (6.42%). The likeliest Augsburg win was 2-1 (7.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.64%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Wolfsburg in this match.
