Augsburg welcome Bayer Leverkusen to the WWK Arena on Saturday afternoon, with the two sides enduring very different starts to the new Bundesliga season.
The hosts come into this one looking for their first win, and first goal in fact, in the league this campaign, whilst the visitors are in high spirits after an unbeaten start under new leadership.
Match preview
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After finishing 13th last season and only three points above the relegation playoff spot, Augsburg would have been hoping for a positive start to kick off the new campaign, in order to ensure their usual bid for survival would not be as nervy this time around.
If you consider the 4-2 win in the first round of the DFB-Pokal over amateur side Griefswalder, then the new season did in fact start brightly.
However, an opening day 4-0 thrashing at the hands of Hoffenheim on home soil certainly reminded the hosts of the challenge they face every year to stay in the top flight.
Last weekend, Augsburg did manage to bounce back in a more positive fashion with a hard-fought 0-0 draw away at European hopefuls Eintracht Frankfurt.
Despite a questionable performance in terms of a lack of possession and failing to register a shot on target, the result and a solid defensive display was what mattered after the dismal opening day.
However, things do not get any easier for Augsburg as they get set to welcome a Leverkusen side that they have failed to beat in their 20 Bundesliga meetings, including defeats in five of the last six.
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Meanwhile, Leverkusen visit the WWK Arena looking to continue their impressive start to the season under new manager Gerardo Seoane.
Seoane has arrived from Swiss side Young Boys in the summer and is tasked with getting the side back into next season's Champions League, after a disappointing Bundesliga season saw them finish in sixth under Peter Bosz, and then interim manager Hannes Wolf, last time out.
Despite the loss of one of last season's talismans, Leon Bailey, Leverkusen have looked bright under the new man and are unbeaten after three matches in all competitions so far.
A comfortable 3-0 win over Lokomotive Leipzig in the first round of the DFB-Pokal was followed up by a hard-fought 1-1 draw away at the surprise package of the 2020-21 campaign, Union Berlin.
The standout result of their positive start arrived last weekend when they welcomed Borussia Monchengladbach to the BayArena. A thumping 4-0 win against fellow European hopefuls was a fantastic way to stamp their mark on the new Bundesliga campaign.
Although, the result certainly flattered Leverkusen, with goalkeeper Lukas Hradecky actually being named man of the match after some key saves in a fairly even contest.
However, the clinical side shown by Leverkusen will have impressed Seoane, with Mitchel Bakker, Patrik Schick, Moussa Diaby and Nadiem Amiri all finding the back of the net.
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Team News
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Without a goal in the league this season, Augsburg will be hoping that key strikers Alfred Finnbogason and Florian Niederlechner will be fit to start together for the first time in league action.
Finnbogason has missed the opening two league games with an ankle injury and remains a doubt, whilst Niederlechner was carried off early last weekend with a head injury. However, his chances of starting are higher than his partner's.
The hosts remain without Tim Civeja, Jan Moravek and Tobias Strobl on Saturday, whilst Jeffrey Gouweleeuw's availability remains in question.
Meanwhile, fresh from a first senior call-up to the French national team, Leverkusen's Moussa Diaby has stepped up to the mark after the departure of Leon Bailey and carried on his good form of last season by chipping in with two goals and an assist already. He will start again in the wide forward area.
The visitors were also boosted last weekend by the return of teenage sensation Florian Wirtz. One of the stars of last season made a substitute appearance against Monchengladbach after recovering from a groin injury, and may be recalled to the starting lineup.
However, Leverkusen remain without Lucas Alario, Karim Bellarabi, Timothy Fosu-Mensah and Edmond Tapsoba, whilst Julian Baumgartlinger is listed as a doubt for the trip.
Augsburg possible starting lineup:
Gikiewicz; Gumny, Oxford, Uduokhai, Iago; Maier, Dorsch; Caligiuri, Hahn, Vargas; Niederlechner
Bayer Leverkusen possible starting lineup:
Hradecky; Frimpong, Kossounou, Tah, Bakker; Aranguiz, Demirbay; Diaby, Wirtz, Amiri; Schick
We say: Augsburg 1-3 Bayer Leverkusen
It is difficult to look past Bayer Leverkusen for this match, after their impressive start to the season under their new manager and when factoring in Augsburg's poor start and awful record against their visitors.
Leverkusen should manage to add a few goals to their five scored already, whilst we predict that the hosts will at least manage their first league goal of the new campaign.
Top tip
Matthew Tranter
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 60.96%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Augsburg had a probability of 17.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.69%) and 1-2 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.24%), while for an Augsburg win it was 1-0 (5.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.
