The 2022-23 Premier League title race has now entered the final stretch, with surprise package Arsenal battling it out with perennial challengers and champions Manchester City at the top of the table.
While most pre-season predictions forecasted another title tussle between Man City and Liverpool, it is Mikel Arteta's Arsenal who have emerged as the greatest threat to City's supremacy this season.
Indeed, the Gunners lead the way with a little over a month of the campaign to go, boasting a five-point lead over Pep Guardiola's defending champions.
However, crucially Man City have two games in hand over an Arsenal side bidding to lift the trophy for the first time since their Invincible campaign of 2003-04.
With the two sides facing off in a blockbuster clash on Wednesday night, we are in a rare position of the title being in the hands of both teams; if either win all of their remaining games, they will win the title.
The picture will become even clearer after Wednesday's mouth-watering midweek meeting, but for now Sports Mole has taken a look at which team has the upper hand in the race to be crowned England's best.
REMAINING PREMIER LEAGUE FIXTURES
April 26: Man City vs. Arsenal
April 30: Fulham vs. Man City
May 2/3: Arsenal vs. Chelsea; Man City vs. West Ham United
May 6/7: Man City vs. Leeds United; Newcastle United vs. Arsenal
May 14: Everton vs. Man City; Arsenal vs. Brighton
May 20/21: Nottingham Forest vs. Arsenal; Man City vs. Chelsea
May 24: Brighton vs. Man City
May 28: Arsenal vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers; Brentford vs. Man City
Average position of Arsenal's remaining opponents: 10th
Average position of Man City's remaining opponents: 11th
APRIL 26: MANCHESTER CITY VS. ARSENAL
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SM data analysis prediction: Manchester City win (59.24% chance)
Reverse fixture: Arsenal 1-3 Manchester City
The biggest game of the Premier League season takes place on Wednesday, and it could barely be more finely poised with the destination of the title mathematically ending up in the hands of the winner.
At this stage, Man City have the slight edge as a draw would leave the title in their hands rather than Arsenal's, although they would still need to make the most of their games in hand and plenty of seasoned managers have stated before that they would rather the points on the board.
Guardiola's treble-chasers will also go into this match as favourites, with Sports Mole's data analysis tool giving Man City a 59.24% chance of winning compared to just 21.54% for Arsenal.
That is in part due to their home advantage, having only dropped five points at the Etihad Stadium all season, but while they boast the best home record, their visitors boast the best away record in the division this term, winning 11 and losing just two of their 16 matches on the road.
The reverse fixture saw Man City run out 3-1 winners at the Emirates Stadium, although Arsenal led that match in a host of other statistics and will feel that they are capable of pulling off an upset against the champions.
APRIL 30: FULHAM VS. MAN CITY
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SM data analysis prediction: Manchester City win (67.57% chance)
Reverse fixture: Manchester City 2-1 Fulham
The first of Man City's two games in hand comes against Fulham on Sunday, when Arsenal have the luxury of a weekend off.
The extra rest may not be so welcome if Man City run out victorious, though, and Sports Mole's data analysis puts them as heavy favourites to claim all three points, while a draw is also considered more likely than a home win at Craven Cottage.
That said, Guardiola's men needed a 95th-minute penalty from Erling Braut Haaland to overcome Marco Silva's impressive side at the Etihad Stadium in November.
As things stand, Fulham sit ninth in the Premier League table and also have the ninth-best home record in the league this season, and with a club-record Premier League points tally still a possibility, they will not roll over for their visitors.
MAY 2/3: ARSENAL VS. CHELSEA; MAN CITY VS. WEST HAM
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SM data analysis predictions: Arsenal win (62.89%); Manchester City win (80.86%)
Reverse fixtures: Chelsea 0-1 Arsenal; West Ham 0-2 Man City
Consecutive league games against Man City and Chelsea no longer looks like quite such a dastardly double-header late in the season for Arsenal, with Chelsea languishing in mid-table and offering little sign of improving that position between now and the end of the campaign.
Indeed, Sports Mole's data analysis gives the Gunners an impressive 62.89% of picking up all three points at home to their London rivals, just as they did at Stamford Bridge in November.
Gabriel Magalhaes scored the only goal of that game, and with Chelsea sitting 11th in both the overall table and the away table, the prospect of welcoming the Blues to North London is no longer such a daunting one.
Should Man City win their two previous games then they could already be above Arsenal by the time the Gunners face Chelsea, though, and with a whopping 80.86% chance of beating West Ham, it seems unlikely that they would squander such a lead over this midweek round of fixtures.
Guardiola's men could even be aided by West Ham's upturn in form recently given that it has taken them away from danger, and with a European semi-final to look forward to, they could be forgiven for letting their eyes slip from an away trip to the Etihad.
As things stand West Ham have the fifth-worst away record in the division, so if they can get anything from the Etihad it would be a major upset.
MAY 6/7: MAN CITY VS. LEEDS; NEWCASTLE VS. ARSENAL
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SM data analysis predictions: Man City win (85.67%); Arsenal win (38.92%)
Reverse fixtures: Leeds 1-3 Man City; Arsenal 0-0 Newcastle
It is a big 'if', but if Arsenal do manage to beat Man City on Wednesday then the fans may look to May 7 and a trip to St James' Park as their last major test and match that could realistically see them drop points.
Man City have the chance to put pressure on them one day earlier when they host Leeds, whom they beat 3-1 in the reverse fixture and whom our data analysis tool gives them a massive 85.67% chance of doing the double over.
Things are much less clear-cut for the Arsenal game, although the Gunners are considered very slight favourites with a 38.92% chance of emerging victorious compared to a 36.27% chance of a Newcastle win.
The Magpies will likely still be pushing for Champions League football in this match, but despite sitting third in the overall table as things stand, they do only have the sixth-best home record.
However, they are a very difficult team to beat and even score against - as Arsenal discovered in the goalless reverse at the Emirates - so in a title race that could be decided by the odd point, this contest could well prove to be huge for Mikel Arteta's men.
MAY 14: EVERTON VS. MAN CITY; ARSENAL VS. BRIGHTON
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SM data analysis predictions: Man City win (71.44%); Arsenal win (47.75%)
Reverse fixtures: Man City 1-1 Everton; Brighton 2-4 Arsenal
Everton are one of only two teams Man City have dropped points to at home all season, so they will be wary of the trip to the Toffees in May, despite the Merseyside club's lowly league position.
At the time of writing, Sean Dyche's men sit 18th in the table and are staring at the prospect of a first top-flight relegation since 1950-51.
That of course helps to make Man City overwhelming favourites to take all three points from Goodison Park, but the unquantifiable aspect of that is Everton fighting for their lives, and Man City having returned from the away first leg of Champions League semi-final against Real Madrid only a few days earlier.
For Arsenal, they take on a Brighton side that has continued to impress throughout the season despite changing manager, and with the possibility of European qualification still on the cards at the time of writing.
The Seagulls are eighth in the table as thing stand, but boast the fourth-best away record in the division, so their trip to the Emirates will be one that they relish and Arsenal are rightly wary of.
An Arsenal win is deemed the most likely result by our data analysis tool as things stand, but there is plenty of water to pass under the bridge between now and then.
MAY 20/21: NOTTINGHAM FOREST VS. ARSENAL; MAN CITY VS. CHELSEA
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Reverse fixtures: Arsenal 5-0 Nottingham Forest; Chelsea 0-4 Man City
As far as the reverse fixtures go, the penultimate weekend of the season should be the most comfortable one left for both teams - although of course that is highly unlikely to be the case.
For Arsenal at least things do get a bit easier on paper following successive matches against Man City, Chelsea, Newcastle and Brighton - all of whom sit 11th or higher - as they take on a relegation-threatened Nottingham Forest side.
With a lot of football still to be played before then it is impossible to know what Forest's situation will be, but there is the possibility that they will already be down by this stage, or that they will still be fighting for their lives.
As things stand they sit 19th - the lowest position of any team left for either Arsenal or Man City to face - and after a 5-0 hammering in the reverse fixture, Arsenal would kick themselves if they let something slip at the City Ground.
Man City were also comfortable winners over Chelsea in the reverse and will look to inflict similar damage towards the end of a campaign which the Blues no doubt want to be over as soon as possible.
Guardiola's men will be firm favourites, but they will have been in Champions League semi-final action against Real Madrid just four days earlier - an occasion which may well cause an emotional hangover as well as a physical one.
MAY 24: BRIGHTON VS. MAN CITY
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Reverse fixture: Man City 3-1 Brighton
Man City will finally move level with Arsenal in terms of games played in the last week of the season, just four days before the 2022-23 Premier League campaign comes to an end.
How much is riding on the game of course depends on what happens beforehand, but it looks set to be a tricky test regardless against a Brighton side that could still be pushing for Europe and will certainly want to end a brilliant season on a high.
City's relentless schedule will only make it harder too; this match against the Seagulls will be their ninth game in the space of 29 days, with another to come just four days later and all of those outings likely to have something big riding on it.
MAY 28: ARSENAL VS. WOLVES; BRENTFORD VS. MAN CITY
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Reverse fixtures: Wolves 0-2 Arsenal; Man City 1-2 Brentford
If it all comes down to the final day then we could be in store for a thrilling finish, particularly as Arsenal have the kinder closing fixture on paper.
Indeed, Man City face the prospect of coming up against the only team that has beaten them at the Etihad all season, with Ivan Toney's 98th-minute winner famously handing Brentford all three points back in November.
Arsenal, on the other hand, beat Wolves 2-0 at Molineux and would be firm favourites to do the double over them on the final day, particularly if Julen Lopetegui's side have already guaranteed their survival by that stage.
At the time of writing, only three teams have picked up fewer away points than Wolves this season, while Arsenal have dropped only nine points at home throughout the entire campaign.
VERDICT
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The remaining fixtures seem to favour Man City, and so Guardiola's seasoned title-winners must be regarded as favourites to lift the trophy yet again at this stage.
City's opponents have a lower average position than Arsenal's, their average win prediction percentage is higher than Arsenal's, and they picked up 19 points from the reverse fixtures of their remaining games, a repeat of which would see them claim the title.
Guardiola's side are in better form now than they were for many of those reverse games too, and even Arteta has talked up the importance of title-winning experience for a run-in - something City have far more of than Arsenal.
There are reasons for the Gunners to remain hopeful; they only need to play six more matches, whereas Man City could have as many as double that still to play this season, including a Champions League semi-final trip to Madrid.
With talk of a treble beginning to become louder there is also no telling how effectively Man City will juggle the latter stages of all three competitions, and if they were to crash out in the Champions League semi-finals again, how they would cope with another crushing disappointment in that competition.
The picture becomes far clearer for Arsenal if they are able to win at the Etihad on Wednesday too, as then they know things are in their own hands. Victory would by no means guarantee the title, and their away trip to Newcastle looks like another very tricky test for them, but it would leave them as masters of their own fate.
Man City go into that game as favourites, though, and victory on Wednesday would push the odds much more firmly in their favour of being crowned champions of England for the fifth time in six seasons.
Barney Corkhill
