Saturday's game could be close to call with Belgrano no longer distracted by continental games for a while, even if the same applies to Argentinos, who have endured a disappointing road form. The outcome could be contingent on which team adapts quicker following midweek Sudamericana exertions, and that uncertainty means we err on the side of caution by going for a tie in the round four fixture. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belgrano win with a probability of 40.51%. A win for Argentinos Juniors had a probability of 31.22% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Belgrano win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.17%) and 2-0 (7.77%). The likeliest Argentinos Juniors win was 0-1 (10.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Belgrano in this match.

Result
Belgrano	Draw	Argentinos Juniors
40.51% ( 0.01)	28.28% ( -0)	31.22% ( 0)

Both teams to score 46.21% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

40.15% (

0.02)

59.86% (

-0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

19.87% (

0.01)

80.13% (

-0.01)

Belgrano Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.04% (

0.01)

28.96% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.15% (

0.01)

64.85% (

-0.01)

Argentinos Juniors Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.05% (

0.01)

34.95% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.31% (

0.01)

71.69% (

-0)

Score Analysis

Belgrano 40.5%

Argentinos Juniors 31.22%

Draw 28.27%

Belgrano	Draw	Argentinos Juniors
1-0 @ 12.54% 2-1 @ 8.17% 2-0 @ 7.77% ( -0) 3-1 @ 3.38% ( 0) 3-0 @ 3.21% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.77% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.05% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1% ( 0) Other @ 1.62% Total : 40.5%	1-1 @ 13.18% 0-0 @ 10.12% 2-2 @ 4.3% ( 0) Other @ 0.68% Total : 28.27%	0-1 @ 10.64% 1-2 @ 6.93% ( 0) 0-2 @ 5.59% 1-3 @ 2.43% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.96% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.51% ( 0) Other @ 2.16% Total : 31.22%