Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malmo win with a probability of 72.04%. A draw had a probability of 16.5% and a win for Sirius had a probability of 11.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malmo win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.44%) and 3-0 (8.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.67%), while for a Sirius win it was 1-2 (3.37%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Malmo would win this match.