Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Preliminary Round | 1st Leg

Mar 22, 2024 at 6pm UK

Stade Omnisport Ahmadou Ahidjo

Chad
1 - 0
Mauritius

(Chad win 3-1 on aggregate)

Mouandilmadji (90+3')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Preview

Data Analysis

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Chad and Mauritius, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Chad

Last Game: Chad 0-3 Madagascar
Monday, November 20 at 7pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa

Mauritius

Last Game: Mauritius 0-0 Angola
Tuesday, November 21 at 4pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa

Mauritius come into this match the more settled of these sides and with solid preparation over the last year. They recently held Angola to a goalless draw in World Cup qualifying, and we feel they will edge this one by a single goal. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chad win with a probability of 39.92%. A win for Mauritius had a probability of 33.7% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Chad win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.54%) and 2-0 (6.95%). The likeliest Mauritius win was 0-1 (9.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.54%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Chad in this match.

Result
Chad	Draw	Mauritius
39.92% ( -0.17)	26.38% ( 0.05)	33.7% ( 0.13)

Both teams to score 52.62% (

-0.13)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.93% (

-0.18)

52.07% (

0.19)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.2% (

-0.16)

73.79% (

0.16)

Chad Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.38% (

-0.17)

25.62% (

0.18)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.49% (

-0.24)

60.5% (

0.24)

Mauritius Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.74% (

-0.01)

29.25% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.79% (

-0.01)

65.21% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

Chad 39.92%

Mauritius 33.7%

Draw 26.37%

Chad	Draw	Mauritius
1-0 @ 10.2% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 8.54% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 6.95% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 3.88% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 3.16% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 2.38% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 1.32% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 1.07% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.42% Total : 39.92%	1-1 @ 12.54% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 7.49% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 5.25% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 0.98% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.37%	0-1 @ 9.21% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 7.71% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 5.66% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 3.16% ( 0) 0-3 @ 2.32% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 2.15% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 0.97% ( 0) Other @ 2.52% Total : 33.7%