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AFC Champions League | Group Stage
Oct 24, 2023 at 3pm UK
Paxtakor Markaziy Stadion

Pakhtakor
3 - 0
Ahal

Erkinov (23'), Turgunboev (27', 59')
Kholmatov (84')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Tagayew (21'), Tursunov (31'), Ravshanow (62')
Coverage of the AFC Champions League Group Stage clash between Pakhtakor Tashkent and Ahal.

Form, Standings, Stats

Pakhtakor Tashkent

:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: Al Fayha 2-0 Pakhtakor
Tuesday, October 3 at 5pm in AFC Champions League
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Ahal

:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: Al-Ain 4-2 Ahal
Tuesday, October 3 at 5pm in AFC Champions League
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pakhtakor Tashkent win with a probability of 69.42%. A draw had a probability of 18.9% and a win for Ahal had a probability of 11.66%.

The most likely scoreline for a Pakhtakor Tashkent win was 2-0 with a probability of 13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.3%) and 2-1 (9.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.98%), while for an Ahal win it was 0-1 (4.25%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Pakhtakor Tashkent would win this match.

Result
Pakhtakor TashkentDrawAhal
69.42% (0.031000000000006 0.03) 18.92% (-0.0079999999999991 -0.01) 11.66% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)
Both teams to score 45.54% (-0.037000000000006 -0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.08% (-0.011000000000003 -0.01)45.92% (0.012 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.78% (-0.010000000000002 -0.01)68.22% (0.012 0.01)
Pakhtakor Tashkent Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.92% (0.007000000000005 0.01)12.08% (-0.0050000000000008 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
62.39% (0.014000000000003 0.01)37.61% (-0.010999999999996 -0.01)
Ahal Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
51.8% (-0.044000000000004 -0.04)48.2% (0.046999999999997 0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
16.62% (-0.032 -0.03)83.38% (0.033000000000001 0.03)
Score Analysis
    Pakhtakor Tashkent 69.41%
    Ahal 11.66%
    Draw 18.92%
Pakhtakor TashkentDrawAhal
2-0 @ 13% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
1-0 @ 12.3% (0.010000000000002 0.01)
2-1 @ 9.49% (-0.0029999999999983 -0)
3-0 @ 9.16% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
3-1 @ 6.69% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
4-0 @ 4.84% (0.0059999999999993 0.01)
4-1 @ 3.53%
3-2 @ 2.44% (-0.004 -0)
5-0 @ 2.05% (0.0030000000000001 0)
5-1 @ 1.49%
4-2 @ 1.29% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 3.12%
Total : 69.41%
1-1 @ 8.98% (-0.0050000000000008 -0.01)
0-0 @ 5.82% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-2 @ 3.46% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
Other @ 0.66%
Total : 18.92%
0-1 @ 4.25% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
1-2 @ 3.28% (-0.0059999999999998 -0.01)
0-2 @ 1.55% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Other @ 2.58%
Total : 11.66%

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