Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heidenheim win with a probability of 38.26%. A win for Fortuna Dusseldorf had a probability of 35.64% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heidenheim win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.39%) and 2-0 (6.47%). The likeliest Fortuna Dusseldorf win was 0-1 (9.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.4%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Heidenheim would win this match.