Week four in a wide-open Pool D in the 2023 Rugby World Cup will see Japan take on Samoa at Stadium de Toulouse on Thursday evening.
England have opened a sizable gap at the top of the group standings, but behind them, it is still anyone's for the taking, with both these sides currently tied on five points while Argentina are on four.
Match preview
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Japan began the tournament in the best way possible, beating Chile on the opening weekend 42-12, which included six converted tries and the all-important bonus point.
Against England last week, the Brave Blossoms had an excellent chance to secure their second victory after they reduced the deficit to just one point in the second half, but the English turned it on late and pulled away in the closing stages to win 34-12.
While they cannot be ruled out of this match, Japan's form this year has been fairly poor as they lost to Fiji and Italy leading up to the tournament, while their only victory before beating Chile was against Tonga a couple of months ago.
Those results saw Jamie Joseph's side drop all the way to 14th in the world rankings, one place below Samoa, though they do still hold the advantage over this opponent in World Cup competition, winning the last two of their three meetings.
Both sides are still well in this contest and in the hunt to qualify for the knockout stages. However, they will also know that a loss here will likely see them play their last match in the group as a formality.
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Like their opponents, Samoa began their 2023 Rugby World Cup quest with a big win in their opening match, overcoming the Chileans 43-10 in week two of the competition.
Last week, they were involved in a scrappy encounter against the Pumas, which saw Duncan Paia'aua sent to the sin bin inside the first minute of the match for a reckless tackle on Santiago Carreras in the air.
Argentina made full use of their man advantage with Emiliano Boffelli scoring shortly after, and while the Samoans threatened to make a late comeback in the second half, the Pumas held out for a 19-10 victory.
Seilala Mapusua's side have been tipped to potentially cause an upset in the qualification race in Pool D, but they will need to improve massively from their last match, where costly errors gifted points to their opposition.
While the Brave Blossoms do have a better record against Samoa in World Cups, the Samoans did beat them in their last meeting 24-22 at the Pacific Nations Series this year, which could give them the psychological edge heading into this match.
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Samoa Rugby World Cup form:
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Team News
Coach Joseph has announced two changes to the side that lost to England last week, with Dylan Riley set to come in at outside centre and Lomano Lemeki stepping into the number 15 jersey.
Tomoki Osada and Semisi Masiresa are the players to make way, with the latter suffering from injury and at risk of missing their final match of the competition as well.
Shota Horie, Keita Inagaki, Michael Leitch and Kotaro Matsushima will all face Samoa for the third time in World Cup competition, having played them in 2015 and 2019.
Meanwhile, Mapusua has opted for four changes to his side from their loss to Argentina, with Taleni Seu coming into the second row after featuring off the bench last week.
Jordan Taufua is set to take the field as the number eight, replacing former All Black Steven Luatua, while Alai D'Angelo Leuila will partner with Tumua Manu in the centre positions.
Ed Fidow played in the win over Japan earlier this year and will take over from Nigel Ah-Wong on the flank in this one.
Japan starting lineup: 15. Lomano Lemeki, 14. Kotaro Matsushima, 13. Dylan Riley, 12. Ryoto Nakamura, 11. Jone Naikabula, 10. Rikiya Matsuda, 9. Yutaka Nagare, 8. Kazuki Himeno (c), 7. Pieter Labuschagne, 6. Michael Leitch, 5. Amato Fakatava, 4. Jack Cornelsen, 3. Jiwon Gu, 2. Shota Horie, 1. Keita Inagaki
Replacements: 16. Atsushi Sakate, 17. Craig Millar, 18. Asaeli Ai Valu, 19. Warner Dearns, 20. Kanji Shimokawa, 21. Naoto Saito, 22. Seungsin Lee, 23. Tomoki Osada
Samoa starting lineup: 15. Duncan Paia'aua, 14. Ed Fidow, 13. Tumua Manu, 12. Alai D'Angelo Leuila, 11. Ben Lam, 10. Christian Leali'ifano, 9. Jonathan Taumateine, 8. Sa Jordan Taufua, 7. Fritz Lee, 6. Taleni Junior Agaese Seu, 5. Theo McFarland, 4. Chris Vui (c), 3. Paul Alo-Emile, 2. Seilala Lam, 1. James Lay
Replacements: 16. Sama Malolo, 17. Jordan Lay, 18. Michael Alaalatoa, 19. Steven Luatua, 20. Alamanda Motuga, 21. Melani Matavao, 22. Neria Fomai, 23. Danny Toala
Head To Head
Japan and Samoa have met 17 times in all competitions in the past. Samoa have been the superior side with 12 wins, while Japan have won five. They have also met three times in the World Cup, with Japan leading 2-1.
The most recent encounter came in July this year at the Pacific Nations Series, and Samoa won the match 24-22.
We say: Japan 22-26 Samoa
There really is very little to choose between these sides, and an individual moment of brilliance or a costly mistake could decide this match. Based on how they finished the last match, we are just about leaning toward the Samoans to edge this one, but it would certainly not be a huge shock if Japan pulled off an upset.
No Data Analysis info
Devesh Jaganath
