League leaders Sporting Lisbon host third-placed Benfica in a huge clash at the top of the Primeira Liga table on Monday, with six points currently separating the two sides.
Benfica will be looking to return to winning ways after drawing their last two league games, seeing them lose ground on their rivals in the hunt for the league title.
Match preview
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The home side come into this game having won their last three outings in all competitions, including winning both the semi-final and final of the Taca da Liga to secure their first piece of silverware of the season.
In the penultimate stage, Ruben Amorim's side trailed Porto 1-0 until a late Jovane Cabral brace, including a 94th-minute winner, booked their place in the final, with Pedro Porro scoring the only goal in a 1-0 win over Braga in the final as Os Verde e brancos won their third Portuguese League Cup in four years.
The side from the capital followed these cup wins up with a fairly routine 2-0 win over the Primeira Liga's basement side Boavista. Nuno Santos gave his team a one-goal lead in the first half before Pedro Porro added a second to seal their 12th league victory of the season.
Thirty-six-year-old manager Ruben Amorim has his side on track for a first top-flight title since 2002 having been the most impressive team in the division so far this season.
Only second-placed Porto have more league goals than Sporting's 33, while no side matches their excellent defensive record, having allowed just nine goals from 15 league games.
They are yet to lose in Primeira Liga action this season, picking up a fantastic tally of 39 points out of the 45 available as we approach the crucial second half of the domestic season.
The league leaders will see this game as a chance to go nine points clear of a title rival, while maintaining distance from Porto who are also hot on their heels, however Benfica will be keen to reduce their gap from the top of the table to just three points with a win in this one.
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Jorge Jesus's side recorded an impressive victory in their last fixture, a 3-0 win over Primeira Liga strugglers Belenenses in the Taca de Portugal. Darwin Nunez, Rafa Silva and Franco Cervi were all on the scoresheet as Benfica eased into the final four of the competition.
However, they have only won two of their last five league outings, a small bump in the road on their hunt for a 38th Primeira Liga title.
Although a recent 1-1 draw with title rivals Porto is not too disappointing, the most recent league result, a 1-1 home draw with strugglers Nacional, is more of a cause for concern.
Chiquinho gave As Aguias an early lead, but they could not find a winning goal after a second-half equaliser for Nacional through Bryan Rochez despite the hosts dominating the game for large portions.
Jesus's side do still boast a very strong league record this season however, having won 10 of their 15 games, drawing three and losing just two, but due to the formidable form of Sporting, a loss in this game could see them struggle to overcome a nine-point gap between themselves and the summit of the table.
Benfica will be hoping to repeat last season's results against Monday's opponents, when they did the double over the current league leaders, including a 2-0 win at the Estadio Jose Alvalade courtesy of a late Rafa Silva brace.
However, they come up against a Sporting side who have vastly improved since last season, and will provide a much tougher test in this game.
Sporting Lisbon Primeira Liga form: WWWWDW
Sporting Lisbon form (all competitions): WLDWWW
Benfica Primeira Liga form: WWDWDD
Benfica form (all competitions): WWDLDW
Team News
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Sporting will be without midfielder Joao Palhinha, who has to serve a suspension after picking up his fifth league yellow card in a substitute appearance in the win over Boavista.
Meanwhile, Pedro Goncalves could return to the side after serving a suspension in the win over Boavista. The Portuguese attacker has 12 goals and two assists to his name from 13 league games this season, topping the league's scoring charts.
Benfica were hit badly by an outbreak of COVID-19 which has seen several key players miss games, coinciding with their downturn in form in recent weeks.
Nicolas Otamendi was one of the players who was sidelined, but he could be available for this game, as well as Nuno Tavares after the pair have both missed the side's last three matches.
However, midfielder Everton and goalkeeper Odysseas Vlachodimos are expected to remain out of the squad after positive coronavirus tests, while Helton Leite could also miss this game.
They were recently boosted by the return of Jan Vertonghen after he was out with the virus, and the Belgian will be crucial at the back in this game amidst several notable absentees for the visitors.
Sporting Lisbon possible starting lineup:
Adan; Neto, Coates, Feddal; Porro, Mario, Nunes, Mendes; Goncalves, Tomas, Santos
Benfica possible starting lineup:
Svillar; Gilberto, Vertonghen, Otamendi, Grimaldo; Silva, Weigl, Pizzi, Chiquinho; Nunez, Waldschmidt
We say: Sporting Lisbon 2-1 Benfica
Benfica cannot really afford to lose this game if they want to remain in the battle for the top spot, however with a weakened squad already causing their form to dip, we can see a strong Sporting side taking advantage of this and coming out with a narrow victory to extend their lead at the top of the table.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 43.28%. A win for Sporting Lisbon had a probability of 30.44% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.88%) and 0-2 (7.74%). The likeliest Sporting Lisbon win was 1-0 (8.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood.
