Venezuelan outfit Deportivo Tachira travel to Argentinian side Rosario Central for the second leg of their last-16 Copa Sudamericana tie on Friday.
An entertaining 2-2 draw was played out in the first leg, meaning it is all to play for at the Estadio Gigante de Arroyito, though the hosts do have a slight advantage with two away goals.
Match preview
First-leg encounters in the knockout rounds of a tournament can be cautious affairs with little goalmouth action, but last week's clash between Rosario and Tachira was quite the opposite, with four goals and 39 shots in San Cristobal.
A mistake from Tachira goalkeeper Cristopher Varela allowed Rosario winger Luciano Ferreyra to pounce on a loose ball and break the deadlock 26 minutes in, before Jose Luis Granados tapped in an equaliser at the far post from Maurice Cova's deep free-kick midway through the second half.
The game was seemingly heading for a 1-1 draw, but Alan Marinelli had other ideas as his drilled effort on the edge of the area sneaked into the bottom-left corner, giving Rosario at 90th minute lead.
However, they were pegged back for the second time by Tachira, when substitute Douglar Angarita headed in a 94th-minute equaliser to snatch a dramatic draw at the death.
As pleased as Rosario head coach Kily Gonzalez will be that his side remain in the tie, seeing his team concede twice from winning positions will be a bitter pill to swallow.
The Canalla are competing in just their fifth Copa Sudamericana and, as yet, they have never progressed past the last 16.
Rosario are unbeaten in each of their last four home matches, keeping as many clean sheets in the process, and another shutout would help the Argentines to progress.
Preventing Tachira from scoring, however, may prove to be a difficult challenge as they have found the net in each of their last 13 matches across all competitions, scoring at least twice on nine occasions during this period.
Their desire to come back twice against Rosario will have pleased manager Juan Tolisano, who has now guided his side to seven games without defeat in all competitions.
After failing to progress from the Copa Libertadores group stages, Tachira dropped down into the Copa Sudamericana. They are competing in this tournament for just the third time in their history and for the first time since 2012.
Like Rosario, Tachira have never progressed past the last 16, but with a good run of form and momentum to take into the second leg, Tolisano's men will be confident that they can get the job done on Friday and progress into the quarter-finals.
- W
- D
- W
- W
- D
- D
- L
- W
- W
- D
- D
- L
- D
- W
- W
- W
- D
- W
- D
Team News
Rosario pair Marco Ruben and Jorge Broun are both unavailable after testing positive for coronavirus, while Martin Rabunal, Fabian Rinaudo and Josue Ayala remain out with long-term knee injuries.
Emiliano Vecchio is set to partner either Francesco Lo Celso or Emmanuel Ojeda in central midfield, with Ferreyra and Diego Zabala likely to operate on the flanks.
Experienced forward Lucas Gamba, who led the line in the first leg, is set to keep his place and play alongside either Ignacio Russo and Luca Martinez.
As for Deportivo Tachira, Tolisano is unlikely to make too many changes, if any, to the starting lineup that played in the first leg.
Pablo Camacho could start again at centre-back alongside Lucas Trejo, with Nelson Hernandez and Granados set to remain in the first XI as full-backs.
Lucas Gomez, who has scored five goals in 11 appearances so far this campaign, is expected to lead the line, with either Edgar Peres Greco or Angarita set to join him in attack.
Rosario Central possible starting lineup:
Romero; Martinez, Almada, Avila, Blanco; Zabala, Vecchio, Ojeda, Ferreyra; Gamba, Russo
Deportivo Tachira possible starting lineup:
Varela; Camacho, Trejo, Quintero, Granados; Chacon, Cova, Zalzman, Gondola; Peres Greco; Gomez
We say: Rosario Central 2-1 Deportivo Tachira (4-3 on aggregate)
Another entertaining encounter could be on the cards in Argentina on Friday, as both sides look to progress to the quarter-finals for the first time.
Rosario Central will head into this fixture as the slight favourites, and even though Deportivo Tachira have looked strong going forward in recent months, we feel that the hosts can match them and secure a narrow victory.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rosario Central win with a probability of 62.51%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Deportivo Tachira had a probability of 15.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rosario Central win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.67%) and 2-1 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.52%), while for a Deportivo Tachira win it was 0-1 (5.84%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Rosario Central in this match.
