Primeira Liga | Gameweek 22
Feb 15, 2025 at 8.30pm UK
Estadio Jose Alvalade
We said: Sporting Lisbon 3-1 Arouca
While both sides are enjoying strong league form, Sporting are expected to claim victory this weekend, given their formidable home record this season and their dominance in this fixture.
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Data Analysis Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 61.31% . A draw had a probability of 20.2% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 18.53% .
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.86% . The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.99%) and 1-0 (8.38%) . The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.2%) , while for an Arouca win it was 1-2 (5.04%) . The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood .
Result Sporting Lisbon Draw Arouca 61.31% ( 0.09) 20.15% ( -0.01) 18.53% ( -0.07)
Both teams to score 58.81% ( -0.09)
62.88% ( -0.06) 37.11% ( 0.06)
40.69% ( -0.06) 59.31% ( 0.06)
88.3% ( 0.01) 11.7% ( -0.01)
Over 1.5 Under 1.5 63.19% ( 0.02) 36.8% ( -0.02)
66.6% ( -0.11) 33.39% ( 0.11)
Over 1.5 Under 1.5 29.98% ( -0.12) 70.02% ( 0.12)
Sporting Lisbon 61.31%
Arouca 18.53%
Draw 20.15%
Sporting Lisbon Draw Arouca 2-1 @ 9.86% ( 0) 2-0 @ 8.99% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 8.38% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 7.05% ( 0) 3-0 @ 6.43% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 3.87% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 3.78% ( 0) 4-0 @ 3.45% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 2.08% ( -0) 5-1 @ 1.62% ( 0) 5-0 @ 1.48% ( 0.01) Other @ 4.3% Total : 61.31% 1-1 @ 9.2% 2-2 @ 5.41% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 3.91% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.41% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.23% Total : 20.15% 1-2 @ 5.04% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 4.29% ( -0) 0-2 @ 2.35% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.98% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 1.84% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.03% Total : 18.53%
How you voted: Sporting Lisbon vs Arouca
Sporting Lisbon
Draw
Arouca
30
rhs 2.0
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