We said: Faroe Islands 1-0 Latvia
Knowing that a draw or worse will most likely condemn them to relegation, the Faroes will be well aware of the importance of this one, and their good recent home form suggests they are capable of finding a first win of the campaign.
Latvia have already beaten the hosts in this section, but have been well off it in their other two games, especially on Thursday, and they could well be narrowly edged out here.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Faroe Islands win with a probability of 48.73%. A win for Latvia had a probability of 26.42% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Faroe Islands win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.46%) and 2-0 (8.5%). The likeliest Latvia win was 0-1 (7.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood.