MX23RW : Thursday, June 20 10:06:31| >> :600:1701861:1701861:
[monks data]
NAC Breda
Eredivisie Promotion Playoffs | Third Round | 1st Leg
May 28, 2024 at 7pm UK
Rat Verlegh Stadion
Excelsior

NAC Breda
6 - 2
Excelsior

Omgba (12'), Janosek (39' pen.), Van den Bergh (42'), Koscelnik (74'), Mar Omarsson (78', 90+4')
Lucassen (17'), van de Merbel (45+4'), Staring (52')
FT(HT: 3-2)
Duijvestijn (25'), Parrott (45+6' pen.)
Zagre (15')
Duijvestijn (38'), Zagre (72')

Preview: NAC Breda vs. SBV Excelsior - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Eredivisie Promotion Playoffs clash between NAC Breda and SBV Excelsior, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Both set to battle to the death for the last spot in next season's top flight, NAC Breda and SBV Excelsior will clash in the first leg of the Eredivisie Promotion Playoff final at Rat Verlegh Stadion on Tuesday night.

The Pearl of the South produced a remarkable away display in their semi-final second leg to advance into this final round, whilst the Kralingers proceeded to break a number of records during their meeting with ADO Den Haag last time out.


Match preview

Having finished eighth in the Eerste Divisie campaign after collecting a steady tally of 56 points from 38 second-tier matches, it is not an overstatement to say that NAC Breda have produced a significant surprise in reaching the final stage of this season's Promotion Playoffs.

The Pearl of the South shone brightly at De Oude Meerdijk on Saturday afternoon in the second leg of their semi-final meeting with Emmen, with strikes from Sigurd Haugen, Jan van den Bergh and Roy Kuijpers securing a three-goal success on the day and a 4-1 beating of Alfons Arts's troops on aggregate.

Despite entering the playoffs as the lowest-ranked outfit in terms of league position, NAC Breda find themselves in a sensational patch of form heading into a season-defining week versus Excelsior, with Tuesday's hosts unbeaten in eight matches, last tasting defeat at home to Dordrecht on April 12.

After being outscored by 13th-placed Cambuur in the Eerste Divisie's regular term, the Pearl of the South have found their goalscoring boots to devastating effect during the Promotion Playoffs, with Breda making the net ripple on 12 occasions in just a quartet of fixtures.

Returning to the Dutch footballing scene following an 18-month spell in China at Guangzhou City, Jean-Paul van Gastel is potentially 180 minutes away from a magical achievement at Breda, who have not enjoyed the luxuries of Eredivisie life since the 2018-19 campaign.

With their top-flight credentials thrown into doubt after a 16th-placed finish in the Eredivisie, SBV Excelsior flexed their first-tier qualities on ADO Den Haag over the past week, recording a sensational 9-2 victory over two legs and setting up a final showdown with in-form Breda.

Having only won the first leg at Bingoal Stadion 2-1 on Wednesday evening, the Kralingers still had plenty of work to do in the reverse fixture on Saturday to keep their survival dreams alive, with Marinus Dijkhuizen's men sealing a record-breaking success to blow their visitors away.

For the first time since April 2014 - and the first time in a home fixture since 2004 - Excelsior netted seven to comfortably book their place in the final of the Promotion Playoffs, with Couhaib Driouech, Julian Baas, Kenzo Goudmijn and Lazaros Lamprou all getting onto the scoresheet.

Despite a marvellous team performance, Tottenham Hotspur loanee Troy Parrott inevitably stole the headlines following his 31-minute hat-trick for the Kralingers, with the Republic of Ireland international becoming the first Excelsior player since Thijs Dallinga in November 2021 to score three goals in a single match.

Dijkhuizen's troops will be desperately hoping to avoid a repeat of their most recent visit to the home of NAC Breda during an Eerste Divisie clash in October 2021, when goals from Thom Haye, Ralf Seuntjens and Kaj de Rooij fired the Pearl of the South to a convincing 4-1 victory.

NAC Breda Eredivisie Promotion Playoffs form:


NAC Breda form (all competitions):


SBV Excelsior Eredivisie Promotion Playoffs form:
  • W
  • W


SBV Excelsior Eredivisie form (all competitions):
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W


Team News

After scoring his fourth of the season and being influential in helping his side keep a clean sheet at Emmen last time out, Belgian Van den Bergh is set to retain his spot at centre-back alongside Cuco Martina.

There are still queries surrounding the makeup of the hosts' backline heading into Tuesday's first leg, though, with Boy Kemper forced off at half time on Saturday.

The potential absence of the 24-year-old could lead to Patrick Brouwer earning a start at left-back for this one, despite playing most of the campaign to date on the other flank.

Having fired themselves four goals ahead during a brilliant first half against ADO Den Haag, Excelsior were able to hand Cisse Sandra 45 minutes of action in the second period last time out.

Kralingers boss Dijkhuizen will unsurprisingly wish to keep his XI as similar as possible to the one which romped to a 7-1 success in the semi-final second leg, meaning that Goudmijn and Baas will continue in the engine room.

Excelsior are still without the services of a number of first-team stars heading into Tuesday's clash, including Serano Seymor (foot), Lennard Hartjes (knee) and Kik Pierie (foot)


NAC Breda possible starting lineup:
Van de Merbel; Lucassen, Martina, Van den Bergh, Brouwer; Jensen, Staring, Kuijpers, Omgba, Janosek; Haugen

SBV Excelsior possible starting lineup:
Van Gassel; Benita, Horemans, El Yaakoubi, Zagre; Goudmijn, Baas, Lamprou, Duijvestijn, Driouech; Parrott


SM words green background

We say: NAC Breda 1-2 SBV Excelsior

With both sides heading into this first-leg meeting enjoying a goal-laden spell, we are anticipating an exciting matchup at Rat Verlegh Stadion on Tuesday night.

NAC Breda have been mightily impressive recently, but Excelsior's Eredivisie quality will provide a considerable test, and we feel that the visitors will take a narrow lead into next weekend's second leg.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NAC Breda win with a probability of 52.16%. A win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 24.96% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a NAC Breda win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.8%) and 2-0 (8.07%). The likeliest SBV Excelsior win was 1-2 (6.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.58%). The actual scoreline of 6-2 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that NAC Breda would win this match.



ID:544561:1false2false3false:QQ:: from db desktop :LenBod:collect11050:

Previews by email

Click here to get Sports Mole's daily email of previews and predictions for every major game!


Game History

How you voted: Winner SF2 vs Winner SF1

Winner Semi-final 2
37.7%
Draw
18.9%
Winner Semi-final 1
43.4%
53
Collect / Create New Data
Share this article now:
PSV Eindhoven's Luuk de Jong celebrates scoring their first goal on February 20, 2024
Read Next:
Sunday's Eredivisie predictions including PSV Eindhoven vs. RKC Waalwijk
>
Sports Mole Logo
Enter your email address to subscribe to Sports Mole's free match previews newsletter! Updates are sent twice a week.
rhs 2.0
Euro 2024 fixtures header
Thursday, June 20
 
2pm
 
8pm
Group Stage
Spain
vs.
Italy
Friday, June 21
 
2pm
 
5pm
Saturday, June 22
 
5pm
 
8pm
Sunday, June 23
 
8pm
 
8pm
Monday, June 24
 
8pm
 
8pm
Tuesday, June 25
 
5pm
 
5pm
 
8pm
 
8pm
Wednesday, June 26
 
5pm
 
5pm
 
8pm
 
8pm
Saturday, June 29
Sunday, June 30
Monday, July 1
Tuesday, July 2
Friday, July 5
Saturday, July 6
Tuesday, July 9
Wednesday, July 10
Sunday, July 14
Tables header RHS

Group A

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Germany Germany22006
2 Switzerland Switzerland21104
3 Scotland flag Scotland20111
4 Hungary Hungary20020

Group B

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Spain Spain11003
2 Italy Italy11003
3 Albania national flag Albania20111
4 Croatia Croatia20111

Group C

TeamPWDLPTS
1 England flag England11003
2 Denmark Denmark10101
3 Slovenia Slovenia10101
4 Serbia Serbia10010

Group D

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Netherlands Netherlands11003
2 France France11003
3 Poland Poland10010
4 Austria Austria10010

Group E

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Romania Romania11003
2 Slovakia Slovakia11003
3 Belgium Belgium10010
4 Ukraine Ukraine10010

Group F

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Turkey Turkey11003
2 Portugal Portugal11003
3 Czech Republic Czech Republic10010
4 Georgia Georgia10010


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
Argentina's Lionel Messi kisses the World Cup trophy after collecting the Golden Ball award on December 18, 2022Sign up for our FREE daily preview newsletter direct to your inbox!