Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 51.83%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for Philadelphia Union had a probability of 23.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.64%) and 2-0 (9.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.56%), while for a Philadelphia Union win it was 0-1 (6.93%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Philadelphia Union would win this match.