Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toulouse win with a probability of 60.33%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Valenciennes had a probability of 16.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toulouse win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.65%) and 1-2 (9.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.77%), while for a Valenciennes win it was 1-0 (5.98%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toulouse would win this match.