Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NEC win with a probability of 70.23%. A draw had a probability of 17.2% and a win for Jong AZ had a probability of 12.57%.
The most likely scoreline for a NEC win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.57%) and 1-0 (8.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.96%), while for a Jong AZ win it was 1-2 (3.66%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that NEC would win this match.