Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Patronato win with a probability of 35.5%. A win for Union had a probability of 33.85% and a draw had a probability of 30.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Patronato win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (6.98%) and 1-2 (6.95%). The likeliest Union win was 1-0 (13.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.52%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood.
