MX23RW : Thursday, January 23 22:25:45| >> :60:29:29:
Copa Sudamericana | Round of 16 | 1st Leg
Jul 1, 2022 at 1.30am UK
Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo
Sao Paulo

Catolica
2 - 4
Sao Paulo

Zampedri (47'), Valencia (85')
Gonzalez (12'), Zampedri (84')
FT(HT: 0-3)
Reinaldo (15' pen.), Luciano (28', 39'), Calleri (63')
Vinicius (23'), Calleri (55'), Anderson (60'), Reinaldo (77'), Luciano (88'), Maia (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Copa Sudamericana clash between Universidad Catolica and Sao Paulo, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Universidad Catolica

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Last Game: Catolica 0-1 Talleres
Wednesday, May 25 at 1.30am in Copa Libertadores
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Sao Paulo

Last Six:
Last Game: Sao Paulo 0-0 Juventude
Sunday, June 26 at 10pm in Brasileiro

We said: Universidad Catolica 0-2 Sao Paulo

 Universidad Catolica might be heading into this match on the back of three victories, but in the group stage, they found things difficult and that could be the case again on Friday. The visitors are a strong squad with plenty of confidence as one of the favourites to win the entire competition, and they should be able to secure a routine win here. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 38.95%. A win for Universidad Catolica had a probability of 32.21% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.87%) and 0-2 (7.52%). The likeliest Universidad Catolica win was 1-0 (11.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sao Paulo would win this match.

Result
Universidad CatolicaDrawSao Paulo
32.21% (0.024000000000001 0.02) 28.84% (0.018000000000001 0.02) 38.95% (-0.035999999999994 -0.04)
Both teams to score 44.95% (-0.033999999999999 -0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
38.44% (-0.045000000000002 -0.05)61.56% (0.050999999999995 0.05)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
18.59% (-0.035 -0.04)81.41% (0.040000000000006 0.04)
Universidad Catolica Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.86% (-0.0049999999999955 -0)35.14% (0.012 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.11% (-0.0069999999999979 -0.01)71.89% (0.013000000000005 0.01)
Sao Paulo Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.29% (-0.045000000000002 -0.05)30.71% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.04% (-0.054000000000002 -0.05)66.96% (0.059999999999988 0.06)
Score Analysis
    Universidad Catolica 32.21%
    Sao Paulo 38.95%
    Draw 28.83%
Universidad CatolicaDrawSao Paulo
1-0 @ 11.28% (0.02 0.02)
2-1 @ 6.97%
2-0 @ 5.9% (0.008 0.01)
3-1 @ 2.43%
3-0 @ 2.06% (0.0029999999999997 0)
3-2 @ 1.43% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Other @ 2.13%
Total : 32.21%
1-1 @ 13.32%
0-0 @ 10.78% (0.02 0.02)
2-2 @ 4.11% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
Other @ 0.61%
Total : 28.83%
0-1 @ 12.73%
1-2 @ 7.87% (-0.008 -0.01)
0-2 @ 7.52% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
1-3 @ 3.1% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
0-3 @ 2.96% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.62% (-0.004 -0)
1-4 @ 0.91% (-0.003 -0)
Other @ 2.24%
Total : 38.95%

How you voted: Catolica vs Sao Paulo

Universidad Catolica
25.9%
Draw
14.8%
Sao Paulo
59.3%
27
rhs 2.0
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