Club Leon need a win on the final matchday of the Liga MX Apertura season to assure themselves a place in the play-in round as they host Juarez at Estadio Leon on Sunday.
In their previous encounter, Los Panzas Verdes conceded in stoppage time, losing 5-4 to Puebla, while Juarez lost a third successive league fixture last Sunday, 3-0 at home to Queretaro.
Match preview
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Down the stretch of the Apertura campaign, victories have been hard to come by for Leon, who had a 3-1 lead at the interval on matchday 16 but collapsed in the second half, conceding on three occasions in the final 11 minutes plus stoppage time.
The reigning CONCACAF Champions League (CCL) winners are winless in their last four domestic encounters, conceding first in three of their previous four outings.
Fresh off capturing their first international trophy in June, Leon were expected to contend for the Apertura title, but to date, they have been disappointing, winning only five domestic encounters thus far and squandering four points from a winning position at the interval.
Through most of the Apertura campaign, Nicolas Larcamon's side have begun poorly, conceding the opening goal nine times but claiming six points despite that.
Leon have claimed 15 of their 20 points thus far at home, where four of their five domestic victories have taken place.
Their defensive shape was supposed to carry them throughout the campaign, but they have been up and down in that department this season, with their three clean sheets coming at home, while 15 of the 21 goals conceded by La Fiera have occurred on the road.
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While the Leon defence have been a little underwhelming it is not nearly as bad as what their weekend opponents have incurred lately, as Juarez have conceded three or more goals twice in their previous three domestic affairs.
Diego Mejia's men have given up the second-most goals in the Apertura thus far (32) while failing to score in two consecutive league games.
With 19 points, they have already exceeded their total from the previous Apertura campaign (18), and their five wins are one more than Los Bravos managed in the opening phase of this competition a season ago.
As messy as Juarez have been defensively this season, though, they have produced some memorable finishes, going unbeaten in their first five domestic encounters of 2023-24, with over half of their goals during that stretch (7/12) coming beyond the 75th minute.
They have only suffered one defeat during the first half of the Liga MX season when scoring the opening goal, conceding five unanswered strikes in a loss to Club Tijuana in late September (5-1).
Juarez are winless in six successive away fixtures in this competition, losing three of their four visits versus Club Leon, while they have been outscored 6-2 all-time at Estadio Leon.
Team News
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Leon could be missing Jaine Barreiro for this encounter because of an unknown injury, while Larcamon made one change to his starting 11 versus Puebla, inserting Federico Vinas into the fold instead of Alfonso Alvarado.
Vinas had a brace in their defeat on matchday 16, with Nicolas Lopez and Omar Fernandez also finding the back of the net, while Rodolfo Cota conceded one more goal in that game (five) than he had in his previous seven domestic fixtures combined.
Angel Mena has five career goals against Juarez, though ex-forward Lucas Di Yorio had the only strike when they beat them 1-0 in this exact fixture last season.
Haret Ortega is doubtful for Juarez after undergoing knee surgery, Diego Valoyes may be a game-time decision with a hamstring strain, Sebastian Perez Bouquet will be questionable due to an unknown injury and Aviles Hurtado is out after his late red card versus Queretaro.
Captain Alfredo Talavera has conceded 10 goals in his last three matches, while Michael Santos is the only one to score for this team over that stretch.
They have not claimed all three points from a domestic encounter since matchday 11 when Hurtado, Diego Chavez and Denzell Garcia each netted in a 3-2 triumph over San Luis.
Club Leon possible starting lineup:
Cota; Moreno, Frias, Tesillo, O. Rodriguez; Mena, Romero, J. Rodriguez, Fernandez; Vinas, Lopez
Juarez possible starting lineup:
Talavera; L. Rodriguez, Mosquera, Pelua, Vukcevic; D. Garcia, Salas; Chavez, Osuna, A. Garcia; Santos
We say: Club Leon 2-0 Juarez
There are too many defensive deficiencies that have crept up for Juarez in recent matches that we believe even a side like Leon, who are not all that potent in front of goal, should be able to bury their chances.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
