Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 62.3%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Sport Recife had a probability of 15.71%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12%) and 1-2 (9.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.42%), while for a Sport Recife win it was 1-0 (5.6%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Mineiro would win this match.