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Lokomotiv Moscow
Champions League | Group Stage
Nov 3, 2020 at 5.55pm UK
RZD Arena
Atletico Madrid logo

Lokomotiv
1 - 1
Atletico

Miranchuk (25' pen.)
Cerqueira (29'), Krychowiak (51'), Rajkovic (54'), Zhemaletdinov (69'), M. (90+5')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Gimenez (18')
Suarez (24'), Niguez (44'), Lodi (49')

Preview: Lokomotiv Moscow vs. Atletico Madrid - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Champions League clash between Lokomotiv Moscow and Atletico Madrid, including team news and predicted lineups.

Atletico Madrid will be looking to make it back-to-back victories in the Champions League when they travel to Russia to face Lokomotiv Moscow on Tuesday night.

Diego Simeone's side are currently second in Group A with three points to show from their two matches in the section, while Lokomotiv sit third with one point from their opening two fixtures.


Match preview

Current Lokomotiv Moscow manager Marko Nikolic in charge of Vidi in October 2018© Reuters

Lokomotiv opened their Champions League campaign with an impressive point away to Red Bull Salzburg before suffering a 2-1 defeat to Bayern Munich last week, with a total of one point leaving them third in the section.

It was always going to be a huge ask for the Russian side to qualify from this group considering the strength of the opposition, but they have performed impressively in their two fixtures thus far.

This is the third year in a row that Lokomotiv have been in the group stage of the Champions League, but they have finished bottom of their section in the last two seasons. Parovozy have actually lost 12 of their last 15 matches in the group stage of the Champions League, while they have been victorious in just two of their last 16 European fixtures, which is an indication of the size of their task.

Lokomotiv faced Atletico during the group stage of last season's competition, suffering 2-0 defeats home and away, with Joao Felix and Thomas Partey scoring the goals for Simeone's side in Moscow.

Marko Nikolic's side will enter this match off the back of a 2-1 loss to Sochi in the league on Saturday, and they are currently sixth in their domestic table with 21 points to show from 13 matches.

Atletico Madrid manager Diego Simeone pictured in August 2020© Reuters

Atletico, meanwhile, opened their European campaign with a heavy 4-0 loss to Bayern in Germany but managed to recover last week, recording a 3-2 win over Salzburg to put an important three points on the board.

The capital side were 2-1 behind in the early stages of the second half at the Wanda Metropolitano but Felix scored twice to secure the victory against the Austrian club.

Atletico are also going well in Spain's top flight, winning each of their last three, including a 3-1 success away to Osasuna on Saturday to move into third, two points behind leaders Real Madrid with a game in hand.

The Red and Whites have reached at least the quarter-finals in five of their last seven Champions League campaigns, including last season, when they were knocked out by RB Leipzig courtesy of a 2-1 defeat.

Interestingly, Atletico have never lost in Russia, winning five of their seven matches, including a 2-0 victory away to Lokomotiv last season and a 5-1 victory against the same opponents in Moscow during the 2017-18 Europa League.

Lokomotiv Moscow Champions League form: LLLLDL
Lokomotiv Moscow form (all competitions): WWDLLL

Atletico Madrid Champions League form: WWWLLW
Atletico Madrid form (all competitions): DWLWWW


Team News

Diego Costa in action for Atletico Madrid on September 14, 2019© Reuters

Lokomotiv will again be without the services of Mikhail Lysov, but the Russian outfit are otherwise expected to be in good shape in terms of injuries, and it would not be a surprise to see the same side that took to the field against Bayern in the team's last Champions League fixture.

Anton Miranchuk was on the scoresheet against Bayern and should again support Ze Luis in the final third of the field, while Fedor Smolov is also expected to feature.

Vedran Corluka and Grzegorz Krychowiak should also start for Lokomotiv, who have lost seven of their last eight European home matches.

As for Atletico, Diego Costa, Yannick Carrasco and Sime Vrsaljko remain on the sidelines through injury, while Saul Niguez is still a doubt and is unlikely to be risked unless he is fully fit.

Luis Suarez was not involved in Saturday's win over Osasuna, but the Uruguay international will return to the starting XI for this match, with the experienced striker set to join Felix in the final third.

Marcos Llorente, Lucas Torreira and Angel Correa are also expected to be in the XI, while Jose Gimenez returned from injury against Osasuna and should now start alongside Stefan Savic at the back.

Lokomotiv Moscow possible starting lineup:
Guilherme; Rybus, Murilo, Corluka, Zhivoglyadov; Krychowiak, Kulikov, Ignatjev; Miranchuk, Ze Luis, Smolov

Atletico Madrid possible starting lineup:
Oblak; Trippier, Savic, Gimenez, Lodi; Correa, Llorente, Torreira, Koke; Felix, Suarez


SM words green background

We say: Lokomotiv Moscow 1-2 Atletico Madrid

Atletico have now won their last three matches in all competitions and have shown plenty of quality in the early stages of the campaign. Lokomotiv are capable of making it a very uncomfortable 90 minutes, but we fancy Simeone's side to pick up all three points on Tuesday night.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data


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Written by
Matt Law

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 54.47%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Lokomotiv Moscow had a probability of 18.13%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 17.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.23%) and 1-2 (8.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (12.31%), while for a Lokomotiv Moscow win it was 1-0 (8.43%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood.


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Game History

Who will win Tuesday's Champions League clash between Lokomotiv Moscow and Atletico Madrid?

Lokomotiv Moscow
8.8%
Draw
11.2%
Atletico Madrid
80.0%
125
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