Arsenal must beat Newcastle United by at least two goals in Tuesday night's EFL Cup semi-final first leg to stand a chance of making it to Wembley for the showpiece match, according to Gunners expert Charles Watts.
The Community Shield aside, Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta has only won one major honour as head coach in the shape of the 2019-20 FA Cup, and the Gunners have gone nearly 32 years without lifting the EFL Cup trophy aloft.
However, they are just 180 minutes away from another shot at glory against either Tottenham Hotspur or Liverpool, but they arrive for the home leg on the back of a disappointing 1-1 draw with Brighton & Hove Albion in the Premier League, while Newcastle defeated Spurs 2-1 for their sixth win in a row.
Eddie Howe's men have already conquered the Gunners 1-0 at home this season, and speaking to Sports Mole, Watts warned Arteta that a slender advantage would not suffice before a "super hostile" second leg next month.
"They need a two-goal lead," Watts said. "When you look at the last couple of games at St James', Arsenal haven't scored a goal, they've lost 1-0 in each of the last two games in the league and have barely threatened Newcastle.
"That second leg is going to be super hostile - a cup semi-final with a trip to Wembley on the cards for a Newcastle side who haven't won a piece of silverware in nearly 70 years, that is going to be a really incredibly difficult 90 minutes for Arsenal up there. They need something to protect, they need a lead.
Watts: 'Newcastle semi-final hardest tie on paper'
"You wouldn't say no to a 1-0 lead, any sort of advantage you would take, but I think they've got to be looking at this and hoping they can get themselves to two goals. But it's going to be really hard."
Arsenal still have not lost a single game at the Emirates Stadium this season and remain the only unbeaten home team in the Premier League, but upcoming visitors Newcastle have hit a hot streak in front of goal of late.
The Magpies have struck at least two goals in each of their last eight games in all competitions, while Alexander Isak - a rumoured transfer target for the Gunners - has made the net bulge in each of his last seven Premier League appearances.
Wing wizards Anthony Gordon and Jacob Murphy have also been on top form, so Watts believes that the Newcastle tie is "on paper" harder than facing Spurs or Liverpool at present, adding: "We saw how tired they looked against Brighton, that was only a couple of days ago, and Newcastle arriving there full of confidence on a hell of a winning run with the best striker in the league, potentially, who's scoring week after week.
"They are going to fancy it, Newcastle, no doubt about it. This is going to be a really difficult two legs for Arsenal. When the draw was made, Arsenal fans probably looked at it and were thinking, Newcastle, I'll take that because it avoids Liverpool, it avoids the horrible, nauseating prospect of two semi-finals against Tottenham, which, as an Arsenal fan, I just can't deal with.
"Two North London derbies a season is bad enough, let alone four. So they probably looked at Newcastle and thought that's the best draw possible. But I think now, as the game's got here, it's probably the hardest one on paper. It's going to be a really tough night for Arsenal. I think two goals has definitely got to be the aim."
How can Arsenal "wrestle control" from Bruno Guimaraes-less Newcastle?
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Arsenal come into the first leg without Ethan Nwaneri, Bukayo Saka, Raheem Sterling, Takehiro Tomiyasu and Ben White due to injury, but Jurrien Timber is back from the one-game yellow-card ban he served in the meeting with Brighton.
On the other hand, Newcastle will be missing the banned Fabian Schar and Bruno Guimaraes for the first leg at the Emirates, and the absence of the latter means that Arsenal can "wrestle control" of the game in the middle of the park, especially with Martin Odegaard expected to return to the XI following illness.
"That midfield's been so key to them, Bruno and Joelinton and Tonali," Watts added. "It's got a really good mix of aggression, creativity, quality, technique. To not have Bruno tonight is definitely a blow for them. There's no doubt about that. Arsenal, you would hope, would look to take advantage.
"The fact that Jurrien Timber's back is a big thing, because he can move him back into right back and then you can put your strongest midfield out if everyone's fit and available. And this illness has gone a little bit, Martin Odegaard trained yesterday, looked happy enough. So you'd think he probably comes back into the starting lineup.
"You can have Thomas Partey back at the base of midfield with Declan Rice moving up alongside Odegaard. That's a strong midfield for Arsenal. And without Bruno, you'd think that's got to be an area they can target and wrestle control of the game from."
"Very surprised" if Arsenal, Newcastle escape red cards
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Arsenal have not been beaten at home by Newcastle since 2010, but they were memorably held to a frustrating goalless draw by the Magpies in January 2023, where Howe and Arteta exchanged verbal blows on the touchline.
The Gunners were beaten 1-0 at St James' Park later that year, following the controversial Gordon winner labelled "embarrassing" and "a disgrace" by Arteta, and Watts believes that there is now a full-blown rivalry between the two clubs which could very well lead to a red card in either semi-final leg.
"There's a rivalry between Arsenal and Newcastle," Watts added. "Anyone who's been to these games over the last couple of seasons home and away can testify to that.
"There's some needle between the squads, between the players, between the benches, between the fans. It's just going to add to the atmosphere over these two legs. It's going to be a feisty affair. I'll be very surprised if we don't see a red card over these two legs. Very, very surprised."
Following Tuesday's first leg, Arsenal and Newcastle reconvene for the return fixture on February 5 at St James' Park, before the victor heads to Wembley for the final on March 16.
Ben Knapton
