Although Italy demonstrated against Spain that they can compete with the best in Europe, we think that they will come up just short against a France side that contains a number of quality players that could help them reach the latter stages of the tournament. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a France Women win with a probability of 46.24%. A win for Italy Women had a probability of 32.33% and a draw had a probability of 21.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a France Women win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.71%) and 2-0 (5.17%). The likeliest Italy Women win was 1-2 (7.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.55%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that France Women would win this match.

Result
France Women	Draw	Italy Women
46.24% ( 0)	21.44% ( -0.03)	32.33% ( 0.04)

Both teams to score 69.98% (

0.16)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

70.75% (

0.2)

29.26% (

-0.19)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

49.71% (

0.24)

50.29% (

-0.23)

France Women Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.51% (

0.08)

13.5% (

-0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

59.48% (

0.15)

40.52% (

-0.14)

Italy Women Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.9% (

0.11)

19.1% (

-0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.28% (

0.19)

50.72% (

-0.18)

Score Analysis

France Women 46.24%

Italy Women 32.33%

Draw 21.44%

France Women	Draw	Italy Women
2-1 @ 8.56% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 5.71% ( 0) 2-0 @ 5.17% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 5.16% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 4.73% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 3.45% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.86% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 2.37% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.73% ( -0) 4-3 @ 1.31% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 1.15% ( 0.01) 5-2 @ 0.95% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.09% Total : 46.24%	1-1 @ 8.55% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 7.08% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 2.61% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 2.58% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.62% Total : 21.44%	1-2 @ 7.07% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 4.27% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 3.91% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 3.9% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 3.53% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 1.95% ( -0) 2-4 @ 1.62% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 1.62% ( 0.01) 3-4 @ 1.08% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.38% Total : 32.33%