Ajax's confidence would have taken a slight hit at the weekend following their first defeat of the season, and while we believe that they will run their Italian opponents close on Thursday, we think that the Dutch champions will be edged out by a Roma side that has won their last eight competitive home games since losing to Barcelona in March. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax Women win with a probability of 39.2%. A win for Roma Women had a probability of 36.76% and a draw had a probability of 24%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax Women win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.33%) and 0-2 (5.7%). The likeliest Roma Women win was 2-1 (8.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.99%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Roma Women would win this match.

Result
Roma Women	Draw	Ajax Women
36.76% ( 0.73)	24.04% ( -0.28)	39.2% ( -0.45)

Both teams to score 61.28% (

1.15)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.91% (

1.46)

41.09% (

-1.45)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36.52% (

1.47)

63.49% (

-1.46)

Roma Women Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.68% (

1.05)

22.32% (

-1.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.2% (

1.55)

55.8% (

-1.54)

Ajax Women Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.9% (

0.42)

21.1% (

-0.42)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.06% (

0.65)

53.94% (

-0.64)

Score Analysis

Roma Women 36.76%

Ajax Women 39.2%

Draw 24.04%

Roma Women	Draw	Ajax Women
2-1 @ 8.24% ( 0.08) 1-0 @ 7.06% ( -0.25) 2-0 @ 5.3% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 4.12% ( 0.16) 3-2 @ 3.2% ( 0.17) 3-0 @ 2.65% ( 0.07) 4-1 @ 1.54% ( 0.11) 4-2 @ 1.2% ( 0.1) 4-0 @ 0.99% ( 0.06) Other @ 2.45% Total : 36.76%	1-1 @ 10.99% ( -0.24) 2-2 @ 6.41% ( 0.14) 0-0 @ 4.71% ( -0.32) 3-3 @ 1.66% ( 0.11) Other @ 0.27% Total : 24.04%	1-2 @ 8.55% ( -0.08) 0-1 @ 7.33% ( -0.4) 0-2 @ 5.7% ( -0.23) 1-3 @ 4.43% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 3.32% ( 0.11) 0-3 @ 2.96% ( -0.08) 1-4 @ 1.72% ( 0.03) 2-4 @ 1.29% ( 0.06) 0-4 @ 1.15% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.75% Total : 39.2%