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Wolfsburg
Bundesliga | Gameweek 34
May 22, 2021 at 2.30pm UK
 
Mainz logo

Wolfsburg
2 - 3
Mainz 05

Philipp (47'), Victor (66')
Arnold (51'), Schlager (56'), Philipp (75')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Boetius (44'), Quaison (54'), Bell (77')
Barreiro (29'), Bell (40'), Boetius (61')

Preview: Wolfsburg vs. Mainz 05 - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Wolfsburg and Mainz 05, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Wolfsburg take on Mainz 05 in the Bundesliga on Saturday, with little at stake given that both teams have achieved their main objectives for the season.

Wolfsburg wrapped up their Champions League qualification spot last weekend, while Mainz have ensured that they will compete in the Bundesliga for a 13th consecutive season when August comes around.


Match preview

Wolfsburg coach Oliver Glasner pictured on February 14, 2021© Reuters

Despite blowing a two-goal lead away to Bundesliga and DFB-Pokal runners-up RB Leipzig to draw 2-2 last time out, Eintracht Frankfurt's shock 4-3 defeat to already-relegated Schalke 04 ensured that the Wolves will avoid any final day nerves against in-form Mainz.

Indeed, had Frankfurt beaten Schalke as they were widely expected to do, Adi Hutter's side would have headed into their final day home tie against Freiburg only one point behind Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund in the race to qualify for next season's Champions League.

However, deservedly so having been solid for the vast majority of the campaign, Oliver Glasner's side will compete in Europe's top competition for the first time since reaching the quarter-final in the 2015-16 campaign.

This season may well be remembered as the Wout Weghorst season by Die Wolfe fans, with the Netherlands striker bagging 20 league goals during a wonderful individual campaign.

Given that Glasner's side is largely based on defensive solidity, Weghorst's goals have often proved the difference between one point and three, with the 28-year-old and his teammates alike hoping to end a successful season on a high against Mainz on Saturday.

Mainz 05 coach Bo Svensson reacts on April 24, 2021© Reuters

It will certainly not be easy for them to do so, however, with Mainz's impressive unbeaten run finally ending at nine matches after a 3-1 defeat at home to Dortmund last weekend.

Die Nullfunfer were outclassed by a ruthless BVB outfit, who converted four shots on target into three goals via strikes from Raphael Guerreiro, Marco Reus and Julian Brandt.

As such, Robin Quaison's injury-time penalty was nothing more than a consolation effort, but the defeat takes nothing away from the miracle Bo Svensson has performed in keeping Mainz up with a game to spare.

The 41-year-old took over in January with the club he spent seven years as a player at marooned at the bottom of the table with only six points after 14 matches, but Svensson has guided them to 30 points from his 19 games in charge so far during an astonishing upturn in form.

Svensson will be hoping for one final push from his players on Saturday, but will be mightily proud of their achievements together whatever ensues.

Wolfsburg Bundesliga form:
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • D

Mainz 05 Bundesliga form:
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • D
  • L



Team News

Wolfsburg's Renato Steffen celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates against Union Berlin on January 9, 2021© Reuters

Wolfsburg remain without Renato Steffen, Josip Brekalo and Bartosz Bialek due to injury.

Otherwise, Glasner appears to have a clean bill of health to select from, with the 46-year-old unlikely to make any changes from the side which drew at Leipzig last weekend.

Mainz, meanwhile, will travel without Jonathan Burkardt and Robin Zentner due to hip and stomach complaints respectively, so Finn Dahmen will continue in goal.

Quaison and Adam Szalai could be handed starts in attack, with Phillipp Mwene and Dominik Kohr also pushing for recalls to the starting XI.

Wolfsburg possible starting lineup:
Casteels; Mbabu, Lacroix, Brooks, Otavio; Schlager, Arnold; Baku, Philipp, Gerhardt; Weghorst

Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:
Dahmen; St Juste, Hack, Niakhate; Da Costa, Kohr, Barreiro, Boetius, Mwene; Quaison, Szalai


SM words green background

We say: Wolfsburg 2-2 Mainz 05

We can envisage an entertaining affair in Wolfsburg on Saturday given that both teams can play without pressure having secured their main aims for the season.

A share of the spoils seems likely, then, given that both sides head into this encounter in decent, albeit dipping, form of late.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wolfsburg win with a probability of 52.07%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 24.33% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Wolfsburg win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.72%) and 2-0 (8.68%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 0-1 (6.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.12%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Wolfsburg vs Mainz 05

Wolfsburg
82.0%
Draw
11.5%
Mainz 05
6.6%
61
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Group A

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Germany Germany11003
2 Hungary Hungary00000
3 Switzerland Switzerland00000
4 Scotland flag Scotland10010

Group B

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1 Albania national flag Albania00000
2 Croatia Croatia00000
3 Italy Italy00000
4 Spain Spain00000

Group C

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1 Denmark Denmark00000
2 England flag England00000
3 Serbia Serbia00000
4 Slovenia Slovenia00000

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1 Austria Austria00000
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3 Netherlands Netherlands00000
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4 Ukraine Ukraine00000

Group F

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1 Czech Republic Czech Republic00000
2 Georgia Georgia00000
3 Portugal Portugal00000
4 Turkey Turkey00000


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