Separated by just three points and one place in the top half of the Primeira Liga standings, Vitoria de Guimaraes and Pacos de Ferreira square off at the Dom Afonso Henriques on Friday.
Os Vimaranenses are unbeaten in five home games against the visitors since 2016, claiming four wins and one draw, and will look to keep this fine run going as they make a late push for the Conference League places.
Match preview
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Despite the result, manager Pepa will be impressed by his side's performance against title-chasing Porto last Sunday when they were narrowly beaten 1-0 in Guimaraes.
Mehdi Taremi's 36th-minute penalty strike was all that separated the sides at the Dom Afonso Henriques as Vitoria de Guimaraes put up a valiant fight and ensured the league leaders worked their socks off for the win.
Os Vimaranenses have now won three and lost two of their most recent five games since the start of March, with both defeats coming against league powerhouses Porto and Sporting Lisbon respectively.
This impressive run has seen Vitoria de Guimaraes rise to sixth place in the Primeira Liga standings with 39 points from 29 games, while reducing the gap with Gil Vicente in the final Conference League qualification spot to seven points.
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Pacos de Ferreira, on the other hand, returned to winning ways in style as they comfortably saw off Maritimo 2-0 at the Estadio Capital do Movel last time out.
Adrian Butzke and Nuno Santos scored inside the opening half hour to hand the hosts all three points and condemn O Maior das Ilhas to their second straight defeat and a third in four games.
Prior to that, Cesar Peixoto's men picked up consecutive victories over Arouca and Moreirense back in March before crashing back down to earth in a 2-0 loss against Sporting Lisbon on April 3.
Pacos de Ferreira head into Friday's game on an impressive run of five wins and just two defeats in their last seven games, and like the hosts, both losses came versus Porto and Sporting Lisbon respectively.
With 36 points from 29 games, the Pacenses are currently seventh in the league standings, two points above eighth-placed Estoril Praia, but could move level with Vitoria de Guimaraes with all three points on Friday.
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Team News
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Pepa will be unable to call upon the services of Oscar Estupinan, who has 12 goals and two assists to his name this season, after the Colombian forward received his marching orders against Porto last weekend.
Portuguese defender Jorge Fernandes is also a doubt for Vitoria de Guimaraes after the 25-year-old picked up an injury in the aforementioned game.
Fellow countryman Tomas Handel will play no part in Friday's game as he continues his journey to full fitness after suffering an injury back in February.
Pacos de Ferreira, on the other hand, will take to the pitch without Joao Vigario, who is currently recuperating from an ankle problem, and Jorge Silva, who picked up a knee injury back in December.
Other names on the Pacenses injury list include Flavio Ramos, who has been out of action since last November, and French youngster Ndri Koffi, who came off injured in February's game against Braga.
Newly-signed forward Butzke has been on song for the visitors, scoring twice and registering one assist in his last three outings and we expect the Granada loanee to lead the attack once again.
Vitoria de Guimaraes possible starting lineup:
Varela; Soares, Borevkovic, Mumin, Maga; Esteves, Almeida, Bamba; Lameiras, Rochinha, Catamo
Pacos de Ferreira possible starting lineup:
Ferreira; Bastos, Lima, Maracas, Delgado; Carlos, Pires, Santos; Ferreira, Uilton, Butzke
We say: Vitoria de Guimaraes 2-2 Pacos de Ferreira
Despite losing each of their last two home games, Vitoria de Guimaraes have been solid at home this season, picking up 23 points from 14 games. Pacos de Ferreira, meanwhile, head into the game in fine form, winning five of their last seven outings while keeping three clean sheets in that time. We anticipate an end-to-end contest with both sides settling for a share of the spoils.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 46.45%. A win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 28.04% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.24%) and 2-0 (8.21%). The likeliest Pacos de Ferreira win was 0-1 (7.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.12%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vitoria de Guimaraes would win this match.
