The final encounter of Serie A's sixth round takes place at the Bentegodi on Monday, as Hellas Verona attempt to continue their strong start against promoted Benevento.
Ivan Juric's enterprising brand of football has again elevated the Gialloblu into the league's higher echelons - their draw with champions Juventus last week sees them sitting in eighth place - while the visitors, just two points behind, have also made a relatively positive start to life in the top flight.
Match preview
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Andrea Favilli scored his second goal of the campaign as a substitute to give Verona the lead in Turin last week, when only a flash of inspiration from Juve's Dejan Kulusevski cancelled out his opening strike. A battling 1-1 draw with Andrea Pirlo's side, despite managing only two shots on target, was certainly well received in the Verona camp.
Monday's hosts then returned to typically attacking mode in a helter-skelter 3-3 draw against local rivals Venezia in the Coppa Italia during midweek. The Gialloblu advanced on penalties after first blowing a two-goal lead right at the end of 90 minutes.
That initial result confirmed them as Italian football's draw specialists. In 2020, only Celta Vigo - with 14 - have drawn more games than Verona's 11 in the 'top five' European Leagues. They have also drawn their last two Serie A games and, against Benevento, could potentially tie three league matches in a row for the first time since January 2016.
Juric's men have surprised many with their early-season stubbornness at the back, keeping a clean sheet in each of their last four home league games.
However, at the other end, they are the only Serie A side yet to score during the first half this season, as star signing Nikola Kalinic takes time to settle in as the club's number nine.
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Benevento arrive at the Bentegodi on a poor run of form, but have at least been competitive in games against clubs outside the established elite.
Pippo Inzaghi's promoted side have beaten Bologna and Sampdoria but lost to three teams from the higher echelons, in Inter, Roma and - last week - Napoli.
That Campania derby defeat at the hands of their more illustrious Neapolitan neighbours came despite the undeniable romance of Roberto Insigne - a Napoli youth product - netting his first ever Serie A goal against his brother Lorenzo's side. His energetic display, though, should earn Insigne junior some more minutes up front, especially as summer signing Iago Falque has been suffering with a muscle injury.
Another setback in the Coppa Italia against Serie B side Empoli during the week may have further diminished Benevento's belief, as they are now on a run of three consecutive defeats and face a testing challenge as they make the long trip north.
Though Inzaghi's defence has been particularly porous, forwards Gianluca Lapadula and Gianluca Caprari have been reliably productive in the opening five rounds, with Lapadula being directly involved in eight goals from his last nine Serie A appearances overall (six goals, two assists). Indeed, he has netted nine in the top flight this calendar year - as many as the former Lecce man registered in both 2019 and 2018 combined.
Lapadula will again be called upon to shoulder the goalscoring burden on Monday, as Gli Stregoni - only re-founded in Serie C2 fifteen years ago - continue a season-long quest to avoid the drop for the first time in their history.
Hellas Verona Serie A form: WWLDD
Hellas Verona form (all competitions): WWLDDD
Benevento Serie A form: WLWLL
Benevento form (all competitions): WLWLLL
Team News
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Verona's Andrea Favilli felt joy and pain in unison, suffering a thigh strain in the act of scoring against Juventus, and will not return until after the latest international break. Meanwhile, defenders Matteo Lovato (knee sprain) and Federico Ceccherini (calf) are both doubtful.
Skipper Davide Faraoni tweaked his calf on Coppa Italia duty and will undergo pre-match tests, so it is likely Federico Dimarco and Darko Lazovic will occupy the wide areas in Juric's 3-4-2-1 system.
Faraoni joins the worrying list of concurrent muscle injuries at the club, as Mert Cetin, Miguel Veloso, Marco Benassi and Samuel Di Carmine are all unlikely to return to action yet, though midfielder Antonin Barak returned from quarantine against Venezia and is available to start.
Pippo Inzaghi's injury list is briefer, but Iago Falque, Federico Barba and back-up striker Gabriele Moncini remain doubtful with muscular complaints - a common symptom of football's relentless post-lockdown schedule. In Falque's absence, Roberto Insigne is set to start.
Hellas Verona possible starting lineup:
Silvestri; Dawidowicz, Magnani, Empereur; Lazovic, Vieira, Tameze, Dimarco; Barak, Zaccagni; Kalinic
Benevento possible starting lineup:
Montipo; Letizia, Glik, Caldirola, Foulon; Ionita, Viola, Dabo; Insigne, Caprari; Lapadula.
We say: Hellas Verona 1-0 Benevento
Pippo Inzaghi's promotion heroes have demonstrated the will to take on Serie A's so-called lesser lights toe-to-toe, while naturally being overwhelmed when facing the division's big boys.
This current injury-strewn Verona side, then, should hold no fears for brave Benevento, but the Gialloblu's greater nous and know-how should be just enough to take care of their plucky Southern visitors on Monday.
Top betting tip
Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or draw in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Draw:data
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hellas Verona win with a probability of 39.64%. A win for Benevento had a probability of 35.35% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hellas Verona win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.54%) and 2-0 (6.28%). The likeliest Benevento win was 1-2 (8.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.74%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hellas Verona would win this match.
