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Venezia
Serie A | Gameweek 12
Nov 7, 2021 at 11.30am UK
Stadio Pierluigi Penzo
Roma logo

Venezia
3 - 2
Roma

Caldara (3'), Aramu (65' pen.), Okereke (74')
Kiyine (47'), Romero (90+4')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Shomurodov (43'), Abraham (45+2')
Karsdorp (17'), Abraham (78')

Preview: Venezia vs. Roma - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between Venezia and Roma, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Another European setback in midweek leaves Roma searching for form, as they visit Venezia at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo on Sunday afternoon.

The Giallorossi return to Serie A duty following a run of one win from six, while their hosts have recently improved but find themselves precariously placed, just a point above the drop zone.


Match preview

Roma coach Jose Mourinho looks on on October 17, 2021© Reuters

A fortnight on from their ignominious 6-1 defeat in Norway, a stronger Roma side fared better in their midweek Conference League draw with Bodo/Glimt, but were still ultimately frustrated by the outcome at Stadio Olimpico.

It could even have ended up as back-to-back defeats against the continental minnows, as Jose Mourinho's men twice fell behind before salvaging a 2-2 scoreline through the goals of Stephan El Shaarawy and Roger Ibanez, who played out of position at left-back.

Though progress is far from assured, Roma are well-placed to advance from their group in Europe's third-tier club competition, and still sit fourth in the Serie A standings - largely courtesy of a fast start to the season, which has since faded.

Mourinho has taken a familiar route of publicly criticising players - particularly his ailing attacking department, in which summer signing Tammy Abraham has yet to adequately replace the departed Edin Dzeko - and the mood surrounding the capital club has apparently started to sour.

A loss to Milan last weekend leaves Roma 12 points adrift of both the Rossoneri and Napoli in the early throes of the Scudetto race, and that reverse followed days after a late comeback was required to defeat lowly Cagliari 2-1.

The Giallorossi may have attempted the most shots in Serie A this season (195) - incidentally, their next opponents have had the fewest (95) - but a more clinical edge will be required if they are to improve a record which has seen them lose three of their five away games in the league so far.

AC Milan's Brahim Diaz in action with Venezia's Dor Peretz on September 22, 2021© Reuters

A measure of the gulf between Venezia and their Roman counterparts in recent times can be seen when noting that their last Serie A victory in this fixture came back in February 1999. Indeed, the most recent top-flight meeting between the sides at the Penzo was in April 2002, before the Venetians departed for a prolonged spell outside the elite.

Upon their return this term, the Arancioneroverdi have been battling gamely to avoid an immediate return to Serie B, from where they emerged via the playoffs in the spring.

Despite being dominated by fellow strugglers Genoa last time out, Venezia picked up a precious point - and an all too rare clean sheet - in pursuit of their long-term goal of survival.

Head coach Paolo Zanetti was suspended, so watched on from the stands as his side held out for a goalless draw at the Marassi - a much-needed result following successive defeats against Sassuolo and Salernitana.

A meagre tally of eight league goals will no doubt concern Zanetti, as he seeks to make sense of a remodelled squad packed with new signings and loanees, and the fact that Venezia have also conceded 76% of their goals during the second half of games suggests they lack either the stamina or wherewithal to see stop points slipping away.

Certainly, that is not the combination required to post just a second home win of the season - particularly against higher-ranked opponents with a point to prove.

Venezia Serie A form:
  • D
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • D

Roma Serie A form:
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • L

Roma form (all competitions):
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • D



Team News

Tammy Abraham celebrates scoring for Roma in September 2021© Reuters

Despite failing to find the net again in midweek, Tammy Abraham should once again lead the line for Roma on Sunday; starting at the apex of Jose Mourinho's 4-2-3-1 formation.

Abraham is the centre-forward (among those to have played at least 900 minutes so far) with the lowest goals-to-minutes ratio throughout the top five European leagues - scoring every 464 minutes on average this term.

The England international still gets the nod over Eldor Shomurodov, while Stephan El Shaarawy will hope to supplant Henrikh Mkhitaryan or Nicolo Zaniolo from the regular league XI, as captain Lorenzo Pellegrini comes back into a three-man support structure for the lone striker.

As Matias Vina is still out with an adductor injury, Roger Ibanez is set to deputise again at left-back for the visiting side.

Venezia, meanwhile, have Ethan Ampadu back in the matchday squad following his suspension for a bizarre red card a fortnight ago, so the Welshman may slot straight back into the hosts' three-man midfield at the expense of Tanner Tessmann.

Dennis Johnsen, Luca Lezzerini and Antonio Vacca are expected to miss out, though, as Paolo Zanetti considers an otherwise unchanged starting side.

Venezia possible starting lineup:
Romero; Mazzocchi, Caldara, Ceccaroni, Haps; Crnigoj, Busio, Ampadu; Aramu, Henry, Okereke

Roma possible starting lineup:
Patricio; Karsdorp, Mancini, Cristante, Ibanez; Darboe, Veretout; Zaniolo, Pellegrini, El Shaarawy; Abraham


SM words green background

We say: Venezia 0-1 Roma

A Roma team running near empty will still have enough gas in the tank to get past goal-shy Venezia, but their own attacking ills must improve soon if they are to sustain a strong challenge for the top four.

Surely the Scudetto is already a distant dream for the capital club, but improving their lacklustre record on the road could prove crucial to future success in Serie A.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Away Win:data



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Written by
Jonathan O'Shea

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 48%. A win for Venezia had a probability of 27.66% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.46%) and 0-2 (7.92%). The likeliest Venezia win was 1-0 (6.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.46%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Venezia vs Roma

Venezia
13.3%
Draw
12.5%
Roma
74.2%
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AC Milan's Zlatan Ibrahimovic celebrates scoring their fourth goal with teammates on October 23, 2021
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12Roma164481823-516
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16Como163671828-1015
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18CagliariCagliari163581526-1114
19Monza161781421-710
20VeneziaVenezia1624101529-1410


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