Sydney FC begin their championship defence on Saturday when they take on Adelaide United at the Netstrata Jubilee Stadium for a place in the playoffs final.
Adelaide United claimed a hard-earned 2-1 win over Brisbane Roar in the playoff elimination game on Sunday to set up a mouth-watering semi-final showdown with Sydney, who secured an automatic ticket following their second-placed finish in the regular season.
Match preview
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Sydney FC entered the 2020/21 campaign in emphatic style after winning the league and claiming the championship title for a record fifth time with a 1-0 victory over Melbourne City in the final.
However, Steve Corica's men failed to defend their league title as they finished second in the A-League table, two points behind Melbourne City, who claimed their maiden A-League Premiers Plate.
Nonetheless, Sydney had an impressive regular season campaign, picking up 13 wins and eight draws from 26 outings and finishing with the meanest defence in the league with 23 goals conceded.
The Sky Blues ended their season on a perfect note as they picked up five wins from their final five games of the campaign, scoring 10 goals and conceding just once.
The appointment of Corica back in 2018 instantly brought a higher level of success to the Sydney outfit, who are seeking a record-extending sixth championship title and their third in three years.
Meanwhile, after losing out on a place in the playoffs last season, Adelaide United confirmed their return on the final day of the season as they held 10-men Western Sydney Wanderers to a 2-2 draw on home turf.
With the stakes high for both sides, Adelaide United took an 11th minute lead thanks to an own goal from Ziggy Gordon, but Ryan Strain returned the favor as he inadvertently sent the ball through his post before Graham Dorrans and Craig Goodwin scored for either side to force a share of the spoils.
That helped Carl Veart's side seal a fifth-placed finish, just above Macarthur on goal difference, with the Bulls clinching the final playoff ticket despite a 3-0 final-day defeat at the hands of Wellington Phoenix, who missed out on the playoffs by just one point.
This was followed by a 2-1 win against Brisbane Roar when both sides went head-to-head for a place in the playoff semi-final last Sunday.
The Reds raced to a two-goal lead thanks to a first-half brace from forward Tomi Juric before Alex Parsons halved the deficit in the 56th minute.
Adelaide United will now aim to move one step closer to clinching the championship crown for the second time in history after defeating Western Sydney Wanderers 3-1 in the 2016 final.
However, they face the daunting task of taking on a high-flying Sydney side who have claimed wins in five of their last eight meetings, with the most recent coming on May 29, when they cruised to a comfortable 4-1 victory.
With just three victories in their last 11 outings, Adelaide United are not entering this crunch tie in the best of form, but will aim to carry on the momentum from Sunday's win over the Roar.
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Team News
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Adelaide United suffered a major injury blow as midfielder Craig Goodwin sustained a foot injury in training which ruled him out of the game against Brisbane Roar and he remains a doubt for Saturday's encounter.
With five goals and eight assists to his name, the 29-year-old has been lethal for the visitors since returning to the club on loan from Saudi-based club Al-Wehda back in February.
Sydney FC possible starting lineup:
Heward-Belle; Van Der Saag, Wilkinson, Warland, King; Barbarouses, Brattan, Caceres, Ninkovic; Bobo, Le Fondre
Adelaide United possible starting lineup:
Delianov; Strain, Elsey, Jakobsen, Lopez; D'Arrigo, Cavallo; Halloran, Mauk, Kitto; Juric
We say: Sydney FC 2-1 Adelaide United
Prediction justification text here
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sydney FC win with a probability of 51.01%. A win for Adelaide United had a probability of 25.23% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sydney FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.66%) and 2-0 (8.44%). The likeliest Adelaide United win was 0-1 (6.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.18%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sydney FC would win this match.
