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Turkish Super Lig | Gameweek 13
Nov 21, 2021 at 10.30am UK
Recep Tayyip Erdogan Stadium

Kasimpasa
1 - 3
Karagumruk

Erdogan (32')
Travnik (31')
FT(HT: 1-3)
Brecka (1' og.), Karamoh (20'), Pesic (27' pen.)
Mor (45+1'), Oztumer (45+4'), Zukanovic (60'), Biglia (90')
Eggen Hedenstad (90+4'), Biglia (90+7')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Turkish Super Lig clash between Kasimpasa and Fatih Karagumruk, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Struggling Kasimpasa host an out-of-form Fatih Karagumruk side in an Istanbul derby in the Turkish Super Lig on Sunday. The Apaches are 18th in the table and three points adrift of safety, while their visitors are eighth and two points behind a European spot.

Match preview

It is only November but Kasimpasa are already on their third manager of the season, with Hakan Kutlu replacing Cihat Arslan last month. Kutlu, who was in charge of relegated Denizlispor for three months last season, is tasked with preserving the top-flight status of a side who have been in the Super Lig since 2012. The 49-year-old beat Yeni Malatyaspor 2-0 in his first game in charge, before heading into the international break with a 2-0 defeat to Gaziantep. Kasimpasa have recorded just two wins from 12 league games this season and have lost seven of their last nine, but eight of their nine points have come on home turf. The Apaches won 3-2 in their last encounter against Fatih Karagumruk in February, with Yusuf Erdogan netting twice. Whereas the Kasimpasa managerial hotseat is very volatile, Karagumruk appear to have an exciting project under 32-year-old Francesco Farioli. The Italian has transformed the Istanbul outfit into an attractive, possession-based side that looks set to challenge for a spot in Europe this season. However, Karagumruk went into the international break on their worst run of form of the campaign and have taken just two points from their last three games. They conceded an 88th-minute equaliser in a 1-1 draw against Galatasaray a fortnight ago, when a win would have taken them into the top four. Farioli will be eager to return to winning ways against their city rivals, as they host league leaders Trabzonspor next weekend.
Kasimpasa Turkish Super Lig form:
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • L
Fatih Karagumruk Turkish Super Lig form:
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • D

Team News

Kasimpasa will be without Valentin Eysseric, who is suspended following his red card against Gaziantep before the international break. Midfielder Loret Sadiku was forced off injured in the second half of that game, meaning that he is a doubt for this fixture. Top scorer Umut Bozok, on loan from French side Lorient, has netted twice in his last three matches. Fatih Karagumruk's Jimmy Durmaz picked up his fourth yellow card of the campaign against Galatasaray, meaning he is suspended, but Derrick Luckassen returns from his ban. Burak Bekaroglu, Yann Karamoh and Medhi Benatia all suffered injuries in that fixture so are expected to miss out. No player has scored more goals in the Super Lig this season than midfielder Andrea Bertolacci (seven), who has already recorded his best tally for a single campaign. Kasimpasa possible starting lineup: Tekin; Yildirim, Donk, Bruma, Elmali; Travnik, Serbest; Erdogan, Hajradinovic, Engin; Bozok Fatih Karagumruk possible starting lineup: Viviano; Hedenstad, Luckassen, Zukanovic, Erkin; Bertolacci, Biglia; Musa, Mor, Borini; Pesic

We said: Kasimpasa 1-1 Fatih Karagumruk

Hakan Kutlu will have been grateful for the two-week break that will have enabled him to implement his ideas at Kasimpasa and he will be eager to get a result at home against a Karagumruk side going through a rough patch. We can see this one ending level. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kasimpasa win with a probability of 40.25%. A win for Fatih Karagumruk had a probability of 33.4% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Kasimpasa win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.58%) and 2-0 (7.01%). The likeliest Fatih Karagumruk win was 0-1 (9.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.52%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood.

Result
KasimpasaDrawFatih Karagumruk
40.25%26.34%33.4%
Both teams to score 52.66%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
48.01%51.98%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.27%73.72%
Kasimpasa Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.59%25.4%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.78%60.21%
Fatih Karagumruk Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.59%29.4%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.6%65.39%
Score Analysis
    Kasimpasa 40.25%
    Fatih Karagumruk 33.4%
    Draw 26.33%
KasimpasaDrawFatih Karagumruk
1-0 @ 10.23%
2-1 @ 8.58%
2-0 @ 7.01%
3-1 @ 3.92%
3-0 @ 3.2%
3-2 @ 2.4%
4-1 @ 1.34%
4-0 @ 1.1%
Other @ 2.46%
Total : 40.25%
1-1 @ 12.52%
0-0 @ 7.47%
2-2 @ 5.25%
3-3 @ 0.98%
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 26.33%
0-1 @ 9.14%
1-2 @ 7.67%
0-2 @ 5.6%
1-3 @ 3.13%
0-3 @ 2.28%
2-3 @ 2.14%
1-4 @ 0.96%
Other @ 2.48%
Total : 33.4%

How you voted: Kasimpasa vs Karagumruk

Kasimpasa
20.0%
Draw
60.0%
Fatih Karagumruk
20.0%
5
Head to Head
Feb 20, 2021 10.30am
Gameweek 26
Kasimpasa
3-2
Karagumruk
Kiese Thelin (20'), Erdogan (59', 69')
Bistrovic (75')
Roco (14'), Castro (80')
Bertolacci (24'), Altinay (89')
Oct 18, 2020 2pm
Gameweek 5
Karagumruk
1-1
Kasimpasa
Sobiech (45+1')
Biglia (52'), Zukanovic (52'), Viviano (90+2'), Ndao (90+3')
Durmaz (74')
Kara (47')
Kara (53')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1GalatasarayGalatasaray11101032112131
2Fenerbahce118212791826
3Samsunspor1281324131125
4EyupsporEyupspor126421811722
5BesiktasBesiktas116321910921
6Goztepe SKGoztepe SK115331913618
7SivassporSivasspor125251720-317
8Istanbul BasaksehirIstanbul114431714316
9KasimpasaKasimpasa123541619-314
10KonyasporKonyaspor124261420-614
11AntalyasporAntalyaspor124261524-914
12Caykur RizesporCaykur Rizespor114161019-913
13TrabzonsporTrabzonspor112631214-212
14GaziantepGaziantep113351518-312
15KayserisporKayserispor112631116-512
16Bodrumspor123271016-611
17AlanyasporAlanyaspor11245914-510
18Hatayspor111371018-86
19Adana Demirspor11029925-162


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