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Southampton logo
Premier League | Gameweek 21
Mar 10, 2022 at 7.30pm UK
St Mary's Stadium
Newcastle logo

Southampton
1 - 2
Newcastle

Armstrong (25')
Bednarek (72')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Wood (32'), Guimaraes (52')
Murphy (16')

Preview: Southampton vs. Newcastle United - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Premier League clash between Southampton and Newcastle United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Newcastle United will endeavour to move further away from the dotted line when Southampton welcome them to St Mary's for Thursday's Premier League battle.

The Saints were humbled 4-0 by Aston Villa in their most recent encounter, while Eddie Howe's side kept up their hot streak with a 2-1 success over Brighton & Hove Albion.


Match preview

Southampton manager Ralph Hasenhuttl reacts on March 5, 2022© Reuters

All good things must come to an end at some point, but neither Ralph Hasenhuttl nor the Southampton faithful could have predicted a performance as dire as the one they witnessed at Villa Park, as a former Saints talisman ran his old employers ragged.

Danny Ings ended the day with a goal and two assists to his name to show his former club what they are missing, with Philippe Coutinho, Ollie Watkins and Douglas Luiz also on the scoresheet for Steven Gerrard's men to bring Southampton crashing back down to earth.

The Saints had managed to claim five wins from six before the journey to Villa Park - as well as holding Manchester United and Manchester City to 1-1 draws - so the manner of their capitulation against the Lions was quite the shock to the system.

However, the Saints' strong run of form has allowed them to cement themselves in the top half of the rankings in ninth place on 35 points - although four sides are only two points behind Hasenhuttl's men - and they will certainly welcome the return of home comforts this week.

Indeed, Southampton have lost just one Premier League game at St Mary's this season - only Liverpool can boast a better record in that regard - and the Saints have won each of their last four on familiar territory before the visit of a resurgent Newcastle.

Newcastle United manager Eddie Howe on March 5, 2022© Reuters

It would have been some story to see Newcastle ply their trade in the second tier of English football after becoming one of the richest clubs in the world, but Eddie Howe's January acquisitions are finally bearing fruit for the in-form Magpies.

However, Howe relied on one of his old favourites to inspire his side to victory against Brighton, as ex-Bournemouth protege Ryan Fraser was in the right place at the right time to smash home the opener before his free kick found the head of Fabian Schar for Newcastle's second.

Lewis Dunk headed home in the second half, but it was a fruitless endeavour for Brighton as Newcastle recorded their fifth win from six Premier League games - a run of form which has seen Howe's side suddenly surge to 14th in the table.

A seven-point chasm now separates Newcastle from the relegation zone as they prepare to push further up the Premier League table in the coming years, and as impressive as their unbeaten streak has been, imminent clashes with Big Six sides will put their mettle to the test.

Southampton and Newcastle played out an entertaining 2-2 stalemate at St James' Park earlier in the season, and the Saints have only won one of their last nine with the Magpies in the Premier League, although that did come at St Mary's 2-0 last season.

Southampton Premier League form:
  • D
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • L

Southampton form (all competitions):
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L

Newcastle United Premier League form:
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • W



Team News

Southampton's Mohammed Salisu walks off the pitch after being sent off on December 28, 2021© Reuters

Southampton centre-back Mohammed Salisu was absent from the Aston Villa defeat with a tight hamstring and will need to be assessed ahead of this one, but fellow defender Lyanco is definitely out.

Shane Long and Nathan Tella also remain doubts at the time of writing, while Fraser Forster is in no danger of losing his place in goal as Alex McCarthy recovers from his thigh injury.

Hasenhuttl is unlikely to consider many changes despite the Villa humbling, although Kyle Walker-Peters may very well return at left-back over Romain Perraud, and Mohamed Elyounoussi's place could come under threat from Nathan Redmond and Moussa Djenepo.

As for Newcastle, Isaac Hayden, Jamal Lewis, Kieran Trippier and Callum Wilson remain out for the long-term alongside Federico Fernandez, but Matt Ritchie may be able to come back from his knee issue.

Howe has no fresh concerns to report from the win over Brighton, though, and it would not be a surprise to see the visiting boss stick with the majority of that same XI if fitness levels allow him to do so.

One change can be expected in the final third, as Jacob Murphy was replaced by Allan Saint-Maximin on the 64-minute mark against Brighton, and that alteration could be made from the first whistle here.

Southampton possible starting lineup:
Forster; Livramento, Bednarek, Stephens, Walker-Peters; S. Armstrong, Romeu, Ward-Prowse, Redmond; Adams, Broja

Newcastle United possible starting lineup:
Dubravka; Krafth, Schar, Burn, Targett; Willock, Shelvey, Joelinton; Saint-Maximin, Wood, Fraser


SM words green background

We say: Southampton 2-2 Newcastle United

Southampton seldom come away from St Mary's without anything to show for their efforts, but Hasenhuttl's side are under pressure to prove that the embarrassing defeat to Villa was nothing more than a one-off.

Such a task will prove difficult against one of the Premier League's in-form sides in Newcastle, but we still expect the home specialists to rescue a point in another end-to-end encounter.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



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Written by
Ben Knapton

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 51.01%. A draw had a probability of 26.7% and a win for Newcastle United had a probability of 22.34%.

The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.41%) and 2-1 (9.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.36%), while for a Newcastle United win it was 0-1 (8.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Southampton vs Newcastle

Southampton
48.6%
Draw
24.6%
Newcastle United
26.8%
142
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
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2Chelsea16104237191834
3Arsenal1686229151430
4Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest168442119228
5Manchester CityMan City168352823527
6Bournemouth167452421325
7Aston Villa167452425-125
8Fulham166642422224
9Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton166642625124
10Tottenham HotspurSpurs1672736191723
11Brentford167273230223
12Newcastle UnitedNewcastle166552321223
13Manchester UnitedMan Utd166462119222
14West Ham UnitedWest Ham165472129-819
15Crystal Palace163761721-416
16Everton153661421-715
17Leicester CityLeicester163582134-1314
18Ipswich TownIpswich162681628-1212
19Wolverhampton WanderersWolves1623112440-169
20Southampton1612131136-255


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