Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 1

Sep 30, 2020 at 7.45pm UK

Stadio Olimpico

Lazio
1 - 4
Atalanta

Caicedo (57')
Marusic (12'), Alberto (26'), Leiva (40'), Cataldi (70'), Acerbi (72'), Caicedo (75'), Immobile (90+4')

FT(HT: 0-3)

Gosens (10'), Hateboer (32'), Papu (41', 61')
Djimsiti (17'), Freuler (26')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Serie A fixture between Lazio and Atalanta BC, including team news and predicted lineups.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 43.45%. A win for Lazio had a probability of 32.08% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.58%) and 0-2 (6.81%). The likeliest Lazio win was 2-1 (7.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.41%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atalanta BC would win this match.

Result
Lazio	Draw	Atalanta BC
32.08%	24.47%	43.45%

Both teams to score 58.51%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.79%

44.21%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.41%

66.59%

Lazio Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.56%

26.44%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.39%

61.61%

Atalanta BC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.53%

20.46%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.07%

52.93%

Score Analysis

Lazio 32.08%

Atalanta BC 43.45%

Draw 24.46%

Lazio	Draw	Atalanta BC
2-1 @ 7.6% 1-0 @ 7.2% 2-0 @ 4.79% 3-1 @ 3.37% 3-2 @ 2.67% 3-0 @ 2.12% 4-1 @ 1.12% Other @ 3.21% Total : 32.08%	1-1 @ 11.41% 2-2 @ 6.03% 0-0 @ 5.41% 3-3 @ 1.41% Other @ 0.2% Total : 24.46%	1-2 @ 9.06% 0-1 @ 8.58% 0-2 @ 6.81% 1-3 @ 4.79% 0-3 @ 3.6% 2-3 @ 3.19% 1-4 @ 1.9% 0-4 @ 1.43% 2-4 @ 1.26% Other @ 2.83% Total : 43.45%