Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ponferradina win with a probability of 49.76%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for Real Sociedad B had a probability of 24.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ponferradina win was 1-0 with a probability of 13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.68%) and 2-1 (9.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.33%), while for a Real Sociedad B win it was 0-1 (8.29%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ponferradina would win this match.