Al Ittihad are limping across the line and are likely ready to turn the page on what has been a very poor title defence. However, they are facing an Al-Nassr side that need a big performance after a lackluster showing last week. Luis Castro will be demanding improvement here and we feel the Knights of Najd will respond with a commanding final-day victory. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al-Nassr win with a probability of 56.25%. A win for Al Ittihad had a probability of 23.89% and a draw had a probability of 19.9%.

The most likely scoreline for an Al-Nassr win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.88%) and 2-0 (6.24%). The likeliest Al Ittihad win was 1-2 (5.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.93%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Al-Nassr would win this match.

Result
Al-Nassr	Draw	Al Ittihad
56.25% ( 0.56)	19.86% ( 0.15)	23.89% ( -0.71)

Both teams to score 68.72% (

-1.5)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

71.98% (

-1.55)

28.02% (

1.54)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

51.23% (

-1.95)

48.76% (

1.94)

Al-Nassr Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

89.78% (

-0.36)

10.21% (

0.35)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

66.48% (

-0.81)

33.52% (

0.8)

Al Ittihad Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.54% (

-1.37)

23.46% (

1.36)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.52% (

-2.02)

57.47% (

2.01)

Score Analysis

Al-Nassr 56.26%

Al Ittihad 23.89%

Draw 19.86%

Al-Nassr	Draw	Al Ittihad
2-1 @ 9.04% ( 0.21) 3-1 @ 6.88% ( 0.06) 2-0 @ 6.24% ( 0.39) 1-0 @ 5.47% ( 0.42) 3-2 @ 4.98% ( -0.16) 3-0 @ 4.74% ( 0.23) 4-1 @ 3.92% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 2.84% ( -0.14) 4-0 @ 2.71% ( 0.09) 5-1 @ 1.79% ( -0.04) 4-3 @ 1.37% ( -0.13) 5-2 @ 1.3% ( -0.08) 5-0 @ 1.23% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.75% Total : 56.26%	1-1 @ 7.93% ( 0.3) 2-2 @ 6.55% ( -0.11) 3-3 @ 2.41% ( -0.18) 0-0 @ 2.4% ( 0.22) Other @ 0.57% Total : 19.86%	1-2 @ 5.75% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 3.47% ( 0.18) 2-3 @ 3.17% ( -0.19) 1-3 @ 2.78% ( -0.12) 0-2 @ 2.52% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 1.22% ( -0.03) 2-4 @ 1.15% ( -0.12) 1-4 @ 1.01% ( -0.09) Other @ 2.83% Total : 23.89%