Two teams struggling at the wrong end of the La Liga table will lock horns on Friday evening as Alaves welcome Real Valladolid to Estadio de Mendizorroza.
Alaves have picked up just 19 points from their 21 league matches this season to sit down in 18th position in the division, while Valladolid are 16th, having collected 20 points from 21 league fixtures in 2020-21.
Match preview
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Alaves will enter Friday's contest off the back of a welcome draw away to Getafe on January 31, but the Basque outfit have lost four of their last five league games during a disappointing run of form.
El Glorioso have actually only won once in La Liga since the end of November, and they are currently inside the relegation zone, having picked up just 19 points from their 21 league matches this term.
Alaves are level on points with 17th-placed Osasuna, but Elche in 19th have two games in hand, while Huesca at the bottom are just three points off Abelardo's side at this stage of the campaign.
The Basque team are in their fifth straight season at this level of football and finished ninth in 2016-17; it does appear that the club will face a battle to retain their top-flight status, though, and they will be wary of suffering another defeat here ahead of back-to-back fixtures away to Barcelona and Real Sociedad.
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Valladolid, meanwhile, will enter Friday's clash off the back of a damaging 3-1 home defeat to basement side Huesca on January 29, with Rafa Mir scoring a first-half treble for the visitors.
The White and Violets beat Getafe at the start of January but have not been victorious since, picking up draws with Elche and Levante, in addition to losing at home to Valencia and Huesca.
A total of 20 points from 21 matches has left Valladolid in 16th position in the table, just one point outside of the bottom three, while there are only four points separating the bottom six in Spain's top flight.
Sergio Gonzalez's side have finished 16th and 13th in La Liga since returning for the 2018-19 campaign, but they also appear to be in for a fight when it comes to securing another campaign at this level.
Valladolid have lost two of their last three La Liga meetings with Alaves, including a 2-0 defeat in the reverse match earlier this season, while they also went down 3-0 in the corresponding game last term.
Alaves La Liga form: DLLLLD
Alaves form (all competitions): WLLLLD
Real Valladolid La Liga form: DWLDDL
Real Valladolid form (all competitions): LWDDLL
Team News
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Alaves will again be without the services of Rodrigo Ely though injury, but Edgar Mendez has served a one-game suspension and will now be available for selection once again.
The Basque club won the race to sign Facundo Pellistri on loan from Manchester United during the January window, and the 19-year-old could make his debut on Friday night.
Pellistri is likely to start on the bench, though, with Abelardo expected to keep faith with the majority of the side that started against Getafe, potentially with the exception of Deyverson.
As for Valladolid, Javier Sanchez, Raul Garcia, Maranhao, Saidy Janko, Fede and Kiko Olivas are still on the sidelines for the visitors.
Head coach Sergio is expected to make changes from the side that started against Huesca, with Sergi Guardiola, Toni Villa and Pablo Hervias all pushing for spots in the XI.
Guardiola and Villa could both be handed spots in the final third of the field, but Shon Weissman should keep his position at the tip of the attack, with Oscar Plano and Kike Perez potentially dropping out.
Alaves possible starting lineup:
Pacheco; Navarro, Alberto, Lejeune, Duarte; Aguirregabiria, Pina, M Garcia, Rioja; Joselu, Mendez
Real Valladolid possible starting lineup:
Masip; Hervias, Joaquin, Bruno, Martinez; Alcaraz, Michel; Guardiola, Villa, Orellana; Weissman
We say: Alaves 1-1 Real Valladolid
There is not an awful lot between these two teams in terms of quality, and we are finding it difficult to separate them here, ultimately backing a low-scoring draw. Both managers will be wary of suffering a defeat in this fixture, which could mean a tight and cagey affair at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
Top betting tip
Matt Law
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Valladolid win with a probability of 51.98%. A draw had a probability of 27.1% and a win for Alaves had a probability of 20.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Valladolid win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.03%) and 1-2 (8.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.29%), while for an Alaves win it was 1-0 (8.63%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood.
