As the Europa League reaches its quarter-final stage, RB Leipzig battle it out with Atalanta BC for a place in the final four over the course of the next week.
Ahead of Thursday's first leg in Germany, the Bundesliga club enjoyed one of their best wins of the season, while their visitors continued to stumble in Serie A - in stark contrast to impressive European form.
Match preview
© Reuters
Since finishing third in Champions League Group A last autumn, behind heavyweight contenders Manchester City and Paris Saint-Germain, much has changed at RB Leipzig, who have enjoyed an upturn in fortunes under new coach Domenico Tedesco.
The former Schalke boss took the hotseat towards the tail end of that ultimately unsuccessful campaign in Europe's elite competition, and Die Roten Bullen have been on an upward trajectory since.
Not only have they inched up the Bundesliga standings to occupy fourth spot - with a three-point buffer to fifth-placed Freiburg - the Saxony side overcame Real Sociedad in the Europa League playoffs back in February, when a 3-1 away win in San Sebastian helped seal a 5-3 aggregate victory.
Having then received a bye against disqualified Russian club Spartak Moscow in the last 16, Leipzig's second participation in the knockout phase now continues into the last eight.
As newcomers to the continental stage, they lost out in their one previous quarter-final appearance - to Marseille in 2018 - before exiting in the semi-finals of the Champions League two years later, at the hands of PSG.
More recently, Leipzig have won just one of their last five European home matches - a dead rubber against Manchester City earlier this season - and have been held to successive draws in the Bundesliga at Red Bull Arena, against Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt.
Ahead of Atalanta's arrival on Thursday, Tedesco and co will hope to replicate their last two away displays instead: a 6-1 destruction of rock-bottom Greuther Furth, followed by Saturday's clinical 4-1 win over Borussia Dortmund.
© Reuters
Despite elimination from the Champions League group stage late last year, Atalanta have continued to impress in continental football in 2022; putting their domestic woes to one side under the bright lights of midweek nights.
A recent downturn in Serie A sees Gian Piero Gasperini's side facing an almighty scrap to secure their return to the Champions League through a top four finish, and they sit seventh in the standings following a 3-1 defeat at Napoli on Sunday - now eight points adrift of fourth-placed Juventus, with a game still in hand.
The Bergamaschi return to continental action with everything still to play for, though, after they took apart Greek champions Olympiacos 5-1 on aggregate in February's playoff round, and then posted their second European away win in a row when Jeremie Boga struck a late winner in Leverkusen last month to secure a quarter-final spot.
Indeed, the winger's was the 11th goal struck by Atalanta in their five away games in Europe this season, and a 4-2 success over two legs against one of Germany's top teams highlights how fluent they have been in the final third when taking on their continental counterparts.
Goals have dried up in Serie A since top scorer Duvan Zapata's disappearance several weeks ago, with the Colombian striker's absence through injury posing a problem for Gasperini to resolve - his side lacking an obvious focal point for all their intricate build-up.
As they prepare for the club's first appearance in the Europa League last eight - their only previous involvement in the competition's knockout phase having been immediately ended by Dortmund four years ago - Atalanta's last success in a European quarter-final came against Sporting back in the 1987-88 European Cup Winners' Cup.
Since then, defeats at the same stage against fellow Lombardy club Inter in the 1990-91 UEFA Cup and to PSG two seasons ago have cut short La Dea's quest for a first continental crown, but they are now just two ties away from Seville, where the final will be held in May.
- W
- D
- W
- W
- D
- W
- D
- W
- W
- W
- W
- W
- L
- W
- D
- W
- W
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Understandably, Domenico Tedesco could be loath to change a winning team - particularly one which extended the club's unbeaten run to 10 matches by picking off Dortmund so effectively at the weekend.
Wing-back Benjamin Henrichs is back at the Leipzig coach's disposal, after missing out at Signal Iduna Park due to illness, while Tyler Adams has also returned to training. However, Danish forward Yussuf Poulsen is sidelined with a groin injury, and midfielder Amadou Haidara is unavailable because of a knee problem.
Spain star Dani Olmo and France international Christopher Nkunku – who has netted 17 goals in 28 league appearances following his brace on Saturday, plus nine in 10 European fixtures - should start behind Andre Silva up front, while Emil Forsberg and Dominik Szoboszlai will both hope to make an impact from the bench.
Meanwhile, Atalanta still have captain Rafael Toloi out of action with a groin injury, but much-missed striker Duvan Zapata could play a part on Thursday after returning to the squad - most probably as a substitute.
Jeremie Boga has overcome a groin issue, and after his winner at the BayArena last month, is an option as a 'false nine' due to Luis Muriel's lack of form. Excluded from Colombia's last World Cup qualifier, Muriel has scored just four league goals so far this season - his worst Serie A tally in seven years - but is still expected to start.
In the visitors' back three, Merih Demiral replaces teenage prospect Giorgio Scalvini, who started against Napoli on Sunday, while Marten De Roon drops back from midfield.
RB Leipzig possible starting lineup:
Gulacsi; Klosterman, Orban, Gvardiol; Henrichs, Kampl, Laimer, Angelino; Olmo; Nkunku, Silva
Atalanta BC possible starting lineup:
Musso; De Roon, Palomino, Demiral; Hateboer, Freuler, Koopmeiners, Zappacosta; Pessina, Pasalic; Muriel
We say: RB Leipzig 1-1 Atalanta BC
While Leipzig have accumulated 26 Bundesliga points since the turn of the year - more than any other team in the division - Atalanta have managed only three wins during their last 13 league matches.
The Bergamo club have struggled to score with their previous ease, but with 18 different players having found the net for them in Serie A this season they can still spring a surprise - particularly being more comfortable on away soil than at home.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 36.88%. A win for RB Leipzig had a probability of 35.08% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.85%) and 0-2 (6.8%). The likeliest RB Leipzig win was 1-0 (11.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
