Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portimonense win with a probability of 52.37%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Maritimo had a probability of 21.52%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portimonense win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.63%) and 2-1 (9.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.16%), while for a Maritimo win it was 0-1 (8.09%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Portimonense would win this match.